Is Amy Coney Barrett the Supreme Court's new swing justice?

Amy Coney Barrett ascended to the Supreme Court in 2020 on a wave of conservative enthusiasm. And sure enough, she was part of a court majority that overturned Roe v. Wade. But these days "she is beginning to separate herself from the pack in important ways," said Axios. Among the signs of Barrett's independence: Her positions on Donald Trump's court cases "were significantly less favorable" to the former president than other GOP appointees. (She still joined the majority that granted some legal immunity to Donald Trump in his Jan. 6 case, though.)

During the court's most recent term she wrote concurring opinions "questioning and honing the majority's methods" while occasionally joining liberal justices in "notable dissents" against the court's rulings involving Jan. 6 and the federal government's air pollution policies, said The New York Times. That's prompting a reevaluation of Barrett after just three full terms on the court. "Has Amy Coney Barrett gone rogue?" asked Newsweek. Not necessarily, said one legal observer. But she is demonstrating a degree of independence. "She is demonstrating that she isn't beholden to anyone."

What did the commentators say?

"Justice Barrett has found her voice — and has easily become the most interesting justice," legal analyst Stephen I. Vladeck said in The New York Times. Barrett's writings are often "principled, nuanced and fair-minded." And while Democrats and progressives might not agree with Barrett's principles "what cannot be doubted is that they are principles." More than most of her colleagues, Barrett consistently tries to stick to those principles "even when they lead her away from Republican political preferences."

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"Justice Barrett may show streaks of independence, but when it counts, she's as conservative as they come," Kimberly Atkins Stohr said at The Boston Globe. When Barrett departs from her conservative colleagues "she does so carefully, narrowly" and in a fashion that often has little impact on the outcome of the case. For the most part, Barrett is delivering exactly what her conservative backers wanted when she was confirmed to the court. "Her resistance only comes when she's not a deciding vote."

What next?

If Barrett is moving toward the center of the court, the court as a whole has firmly moved right. "Chief Justice Roberts looked like he was emerging as a swing vote, toward the tail end of the Trump years," Mark Joseph Stern said at Slate. Roberts has always been a conservative, but for many years he was seen as an institutionalist who tried to fashion rulings to forestall a liberal backlash. His ruling on the recent Donald Trump immunity case suggests that era may be over. "I think the story of the term is: John Roberts becomes a MAGA justice," said Slate's Dahlia Lithwick.

Barrett, meanwhile, will have ample time to work her influence on the court. At the age of 52, she is "also the youngest justice" on the Supreme Court, said The Washington Post. What's clear: Her supposed independence will only go so far. Barrett is a conservative through and through. "If anyone thinks she will 'evolve' over to the left side of the court," said Georgetown Law's Irv Gornstein, "they are mistaken."