Israel is already fighting a war against Hamas in Gaza. Now it may be ready to expand the battle to Hezbollah. Israeli leaders are contemplating a "limited war" against the Islamic group in Lebanon, Axios said, because low-level fighting between the two sides has "dramatically escalated" in recent weeks. The Biden administration is working to discourage that idea, warning that an attack on Lebanon "could push Iran to intervene" and make a limited war not so limited.
"A full-blown war appears to have become more likely," Nadeen Ebrahim said at CNN. Clashes between the two sides "have grown in number and scale" since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, forcing the evacuation of thousands of Israeli civilians from the area. The most notable escalation? An attack on northern Israel that caused wildfires to break out across the region. "Whoever thinks that they can hurt us and that we will sit idly by is making a big mistake," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
"As Hezbollah escalates, Israel must fight back," Richard Goldberg said in The New York Post. More than 100,000 civilians have been evacuated from the northern Israel region bordering Lebanon, and cannot return safely "without security guarantees" that will not be satisfied by a "phony" cease-fire deal. The Biden administration should cease its efforts to restrain Israel as it fights back against its Iran-backed enemies, said Goldberg. "Americans would never surrender to a Hezbollah-like terror threat on our own border," he added. "Biden should not demand that of Israel, either."
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"Israel is about to make a disastrous mistake in Lebanon," Joel D. Parker said in Haaretz. Israel leaders have performed miserably in the war against Hamas, stumbling diplomatically and creating a humanitarian crisis in Gaza that has prompted criticism even from close allies like the United States. Similar images from a war in Lebanon would invite a "global backlash" and even a censure from the United Nations. "It's essential that … Israel does not repeat the mistakes it is making fighting the Gaza War," Parker said. A war against Hezbollah might be justified, but "Israel needs to think hard about the pitfalls before it jumps into them headfirst."
What next?
"Despite the escalation, analysts say that both sides realize a full-scale war would pose significant risks," said The New York Times. Lebanon is reeling from the effects of a "historic economic collapse" that would be compounded by an invasion. And nobody wants a wider regional war. But Netanyahu is under pressure from right-wing allies in the Israeli government to launch an attack. The Biden administration is trying to bring both sides to negotiations, "but Hezbollah says it will not negotiate until the war in Gaza ends."
This creates a paradox, The Economist said. "Diplomacy, not war, is the preferred outcome on both sides." But it is not clear that "lasting calm" is at all possible between Israel and Hezbollah, given the decades of conflict behind them. "Even the best diplomatic outcome, Israeli officers warn, would be temporary," the outlet added. For Israel, which already has one war on its hands, there are no perfect options. Said one Israeli official: "There is no good timing to go to war with them."
