Knives out: Can a surging Haley survive what's next?

By any objective measure, 2024 is off to a pretty good start for Nikki Haley. The former South Carolina governor and onetime Trump administration cabinet member has been steadily gaining ground in Republican primary polls, and is — for now — enjoying that ineffable narrative of political "momentum" which fuels a positive feedback loop for more quantifiable data such as polling numbers and fundraising stats; the better Haley seems to do, the better she will ostensibly do when voters head to their caucus sites and polling locations, starting next week. 

But as Haley's momentum — both narratively and on the ground — intensifies, so does the level of scrutiny applied to her and her campaign. With her potential viability against former President Donald Trump, the party's decisive primary frontrunner for the time being, coming into clearer focus, she has increasingly become a target for the rest of a GOP pack who are eager to fend her off from above, or overtake her from below. Now, in the shadow of the looming Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, Haley's rising star faces a political crucible unlike anything she's experienced in the race thus far. Does she have what it takes to survive the onslaught of opposition that comes with pulling ahead in the polls? And if so, can Nikki Haley really go all the way to the White House?    

What the commentators said

After teasing that he had something "very important to say" earlier this week, Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul launched a blistering blindside into Haley's campaign on Friday, claiming on X that he didn't see how "any thoughtful or informed libertarian or conservative should vote for" Haley while directing followers to the alliterative NeverNikki.net. 

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Paul's seemingly out-of-the-blue attack on Haley follows her rise in New Hampshire, and other early primary states — a dynamic that "helped motivate him to get involved" according to Politico, which called his forceful denunciation a "change of tactics for him to get involved at all."

Trump, too, has taken note of Haley's ascendency, making "a notable turn" from attacking his previously reliable adversary Ron DeSantis toward her in a sign that he's "clearly afraid that a real alternative is gaining on him," The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board wrote this week. In particular, Trump has attacked Haley over her stance on Social Security, even as he'd "previously used the issue to attack Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis," CNN reported. Now he's using the subject to "blunt Haley’s momentum in the final days before voting begins." He has also "reached back into his brand of nativism" by amplifying false allegations that Haley is eligible to run for president in an echo of his previously debunked "birther" conspiracy against former President Barack Obama, according to The New York Times. He had also leveled a similar bogus allegation against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) who was his "closest rival" during the 2016 presidential primaries. 

Some of Trump's most notably vocal allies have followed suit — and beyond. On Thursday, former Republican congressional candidate Laura Loomer accused Haley of conspiring to manipulate a cold weather front in the Midwest to damage Trump in the Iowa caucuses. 

Perhaps most brutal, however, was an apparent hot-mic moment from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who opined that Haley was "going to get smoked" and "not up to this" just moments before he ended his own candidacy for the GOP nomination in a move widely seen as being particularly to Haley's advantage. 

What next?

Despite the uptick in attacks against her, and the proximity to Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley may have lost "her nerve" and "wasn’t really going to go after Trump" during this week's GOP debates, leaving her — and the state of the race — "pretty much the same," according to The New Yorker's Benjamin Wallace-Wells. At the same time, her rising polls contain signs of trouble ahead, analysis from ABC News concluded, pointing to her poor standing with evangelicals in particular as a potential pitfall, given they're "overrepresented among Iowa caucusgoers."

Ultimately, Politico reported, coming in third behind DeSantis in Iowa would "blunt her momentum both in New Hampshire" and her home state of South Carolina, where Trump "remains nearly 30 points ahead."