Why are Republicans trying to change Nebraska's Electoral College vote?

Most states operate on a "winner-take-all" system for Electoral College votes. Not Nebraska. Three of the Cornhusker State's five electoral votes are allocated among its three congressional districts. So even though Republicans tend to win the statewide popular vote, NBC News said, the "competitive 2nd District" centered in Omaha can sometimes give its vote to a Democrat. That happened in 2020, with President Joe Biden. Now Republicans are trying to change that ahead of the 2024 election.

GOP lawmakers in Nebraska are now trying to shift to a winner-take-all system, USA Today said, at the "urging of former President Donald Trump." The calculation here is clear: "With Trump and Biden in a dead heat in general election polls," the race for the presidency could come down to a single Electoral College vote. Indeed, it could come down to Omaha. So far, though, the Trump-backed effort has faltered, with Republicans failing to muster enough votes in the legislature to pass the measure.

"It's a math game," right-wing activist Charlie Kirk said on Steve Bannon's "War Room" show. The winner of the presidential race must get 270 electoral votes. Guaranteeing Omaha's vote for Trump would make it harder for Biden to get to 270 — even if he wins "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Said Kirk: "This is kind of a battleground deal right now in Omaha."

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What did the commentators say?

"The stakes are enormous," Andrew Prokop said at Vox. Omaha's vote "really could determine whether Trump or Biden wins in 2024." Yes, it is a "pretty odd" election system in which 48 states are winner-take-all while two others — Nebraska and Maine — allocate theirs differently. That's "just one of many ways the U.S.'s method of picking a president is ridiculous." But it's ridiculousness with consequences. If Republicans succeed, "Biden loses his shot at a stray electoral vote."

"The last thing Trump wants from the electoral college is fairness," Philip Bump said at The Washington Post. The former president, after all, would probably object if Democrat-leaning Maine also changed its Electoral College allocation, potentially depriving Republicans of the potential for a stray vote there. He would probably be "less enthusiastic." For good reason. "What Trump is endorsing in Nebraska is uncomplicated: a way for him to snatch up one more electoral vote." 

What is good for Trump probably isn't great for Nebraskans, The Lincoln Journal Star said in an editorial. The Electoral College is "outdated, a relic and disenfranchising" but allocating its votes by congressional district "comes closer to reflecting voters' reality." Nebraska is a Republican state, "but the voters who don't support the Republican presidential nominee deserve at least a chance to be heard."

What next?

The GOP's first effort to convert Nebraska's vote failed. The party will get another chance. "I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line," Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, posted Tuesday on social media. It's too late in the state's legislative session to get a new bill passed, which is why he'll call a special session to complete the effort before the election in November. 

But it might be a battle. A group of Nebraska anti-Trump Republicans plan to run an ad blitz opposing the change, The Hill said. "When voters feel that their presidential vote truly matters, our democracy is better for it," said a spokesman for the group.

If Nebraska Republicans succeed, though, attention will inevitably turn to Maine. Biden won the state by 9% in 2020, but lost that state's 2nd congressional district vote. Maine Democrats so far aren't alarmed enough to "essentially cancel out any Nebraska action," said The Boston Globe. Will that change? Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) doesn't think so. "I'm confident Maine will continue to run our elections the way we see fit without regard for what other states' residents think or do."