Cameron on way out, say Scots Tories, so it's OK to vote No

David Cameron today ruled out the idea that he would resign if the people of Scotland vote – against his wishes – to go independent.

But with the referendum just two weeks away, and the gap between the No and Yes campaigns narrowing, the Conservatives and Labour are in such a panic at the prospect of Scottish independence that they have in effect adopted a new joint slogan: don't worry, the Tories (hated north of the border) won’t be running Westminster after the next election so it’s OK to vote against independence and stick with Britain.

Cameron is personally responsible for giving the Scots the referendum and the chance to leave Britain which is why he was asked on the Today programme this morning whether he would resign in the event of a Yes vote.

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The PM responded: “I think it's very important to say no to that emphatically for this reason - what is at stake is not this prime minister or that prime minister or this party leader or that party leader. What is at stake is the future of Scotland.”

Of course, the refusal to consider resignation – publicly at least - may be because everyone knows that the Tory “brand” is so toxic north of the border that the chance of getting rid of the party leader would only encourage more Scots to vote Yes to independence.

The opposite is true, too: if Scots can be persuaded that the Tories are about to be replaced in Westminster by Labour, they might feel less need to vote for independence.

Which is why Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, was bold enough to admit on television that "frankly it isn't looking likely" that the Conservatives under Cameron will win the May 2015 general election.

Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, who like Cameron wants Scotland to stay in the Union, has another fear - that Alex Salmond and the SNP are reaping Yes votes from left-of-centre Scots who might have been expected to take Labour’s advice and vote No but who can’t stand the idea of Labour teaming up with the Tories to run the Better Together - or No - campaign.

So the Better Together camp has hit on a novel solution: they will try to persuade the Scots in the final days of the campaign that Cameron is doomed.

Miliband - despite having Cameron as a campaign partner - is going to Scotland today to issue the message: “The Tories are on their way out — they are losing their MPs, they are defecting, divided and downhearted”. In short, don't worry: you can vote No and you won't get the Tories running Scotland from Westminster.

The cause of the panic is the YouGov poll released earlier this week showing the No campaign's lead has shrunk to six points - 53 to 47 - and that the sudden surge in support for Scottish independence has been attributed by pollsters to a late switch by Labour voters to the Yes campaign.

But it’s important to know that YouGov’s 53-47 margin has been reached by excluding the ‘Don’t Knows’. With what is expected to be a high turnout given the buzz around the referendum, those Don’t Knows could swing it either way. Will they arrive at polling stations on 18 September thinking, “Hold on, what’s wrong with the status quo?” Or will more of them be in the mood to take a punt: “What the hell, let’s see what independence has to offer.”

Whatever, the prospect of a Yes victory has become so real that Tory ministers and senior backbenchers have started to think seriously about the political aftermath at Westminster.

They have belatedly realised that if the Scots do vote to leave Britain, and Labour win the 2105 general election (which is where most opinion polling still points), then we could have a government propped up by Labour MPs with seats in a foreign country.

The snag is that Cameron - in another reform which is beginning to look counter-productive - introduced fixed-term, five-year parliaments with the next one due in May 2015. Senior Tories are muttering at Westminster that if there is a vote for independence, they will have to seek to repeal the Act and put off the general election until 2016 to disbar Scottish Labour MPs from taking seats in Westminster.

One minister told The Guardian: “You simply could not have an election that would produce a Labour government supported by Scottish MPs if the Tories had a majority in the rest of the UK. So you would say: ‘Okay, Alex Salmond wants to negotiate the break-up by March 2016. So we will have a general election in the new Britain in May 2016.”

Cameron said he would be making a further intervention in support of the No campaign in Scotland before polling day. Given the circumstances, it might be wise if he followed Lenin's example and returned to Scotland in a sealed train.