Why the Conservatives are worried about Canada's 1993 election

Nigel Farage has made no bones about his desire for Reform UK to supplant the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour following next week's general election.

Political commentators and many voters may scoff at the idea that a party with no current MPs could replace one of the most electorally successful political entities in the history of democracy, but "there is a playbook for this", said The Telegraph's Philip Johnston.

Just such a surprise victory in Canada in 1993 has "acquired a near mythical status on the populist right". And the parallels with the UK today – a Conservative administration in office for over a decade and led by a relatively new prime minister – are "uncanny".

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What happened to Canada's Conservatives?

It is "difficult to overstate the magnitude" of what happened at the 1993 Canadian federal elections, said the UK in a Changing Europe think tank.

Just five years earlier, under then prime minister Brian Mulroney, the Progressive Conservatives (PC) had won a second consecutive majority with 43% of the vote. Following the 1993 election, they were reduced to two seats in Canada's 295-seat Parliament. "They had official party status removed, and were effectively supplanted by Canada's Reform Party, which became the broad home of right-wing voters" said City A.M.

The result "fundamentally altered the country's political landscape" said The Guardian, and "shattered the notion that only the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives were the rightful parties of government".

"The lessons of 1993 are that the worst-case scenario can happen," said political analyst Éric Grenier at the Writ. "Just because you've been around forever doesn't mean that you will be around forever. You can have the kind of election that requires you to restart a party and to come back from almost zero."

As UK Conservatives faces the prospect of a comparable defeat, political historians say Canada's recent past offers "lessons on the challenges of tempering populist rumbles – and the steep electoral losses that can follow", said The Guardian.

What happened to Canada's Reform Party?

"Huge, huge, huge," said Farage when he was asked about how important the former leader of Canada's Reform Party has been in shaping his campaign.

Founded and led by Preston Manning, initially as a protest movement, Reform won its first seat in Canada's parliament in a by-election in Alberta in 1989. Campaigning on a "populist agenda, which included creating an elected Senate, abolishing official bilingualism and broadly reducing the size of government" at the 1993 federal election, Reform "stormed to prominence, winning 52 seats and replacing the Progressive Conservatives as the voice of Western Canada" said the national broadcaster CBC News.

In less than a decade, rebranded as the Conservative Alliance, the party swept to power under Stephen Harper, who served as prime minister for nine years.

"In the end they sort of 'reverse took over' the old Conservative Party – they are the model," said Farage. "That's the plan." 

Will it happen in the UK?

There are some "almost exact parallels with the current political moment in the UK", said the London Evening Standard: the economy was failing, a conservative incumbent had recently replaced its leader, and it was up against a young, insurgent right-wing party named Reform. The "most significant similarity" between Westminster and Canada may be that both use first past the post (FPTP), "a system that has the potential to significantly skew how votes are converted into MPs".

If the polls are correct, the Conservatives are heading for a cataclysmic defeat on 4 July. 

Clearly, there are "several similarities between the difficulties they confront and the PC’s dire situation in 1993", said UK in a Changing Europe. But "as dim as the prospects are for the Tories, they are unlikely to suffer an electoral rout on the same scale due to the much more territorialised nature of the Canadian party system".

In the 1993 Canadian election, "regional issues were highly salient, and whereas the PC vote share was geographically diffuse and highly inefficient, two of their main competitors benefitted from having regionally concentrated support".

That Reform UK does not have the "geographical base in the same way that Reform in Canada had" poses Farage's real problem in Britain's FPTP system, as his party will struggle to translate votes into seats, Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, told CBC News.

If Labour returns to power next week, it is "likely that the Conservatives will be the biggest opposition party", said Prospect magazine. "What is remarkable is that the question is even worth asking."