Would a Tory-Reform UK pact be a winner for both sides?

"It's time to give the people what they want: a Tory-Reform, non-aggression pact," said Jacob Rees-Mogg on GB News, arguing that Labour won its majority because the right-leaning vote was split between Reform and his party, the Conservatives.

It's simple logic in the context of a recent YouGov poll of almost 2,500 UK adults on how people would vote were a general election to be held tomorrow: 25% for Reform UK, 24% for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. But Rees-Mogg's strongest argument in favour of an electoral pact is that the poll revealed one in five of those who voted Tory in the last general election would now vote for Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.

'Nigel Farage wants to destroy the Conservative party'

Even Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has admitted that Reform is likely to triumph at the Runcorn by-election next month but she has ruled out a "national level" deal with Reform because "Nigel Farage has said that he wants to destroy the Conservative Party". A number of her MPs told The i Paper that an informal non-competition agreement would "make a lot of sense", and Badenoch told BBC Breakfast that Tory councillors would have to "make the choice about what is right for their councils" after the elections. In an attempt to defuse the issue, she pointed out that Tories were already governing locally as part of "various coalitions" with other parties, including Labour and the Lib Dems.

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But any kind of local level pact might not be the win for Reform that it first appears. The insurgent party is "thus far untainted by the realities of power", said UnHerd's Tom Jones. "Getting into government, even if limited to the local level, may dull the insurgent edge on which the party trades".

'Drifting further to the right'

But cosying up to Reform won't save Badenoch's party either, said Bloomberg columnist Rosa Prince. The Tories should realise that they're always better off occupying the centre ground rather than continuing a "half-hearted attempt to restore the party's fortunes by drifting further to the right". Instead of mimicking Reform's populist policies as her internal leadership rival Robert Jenrick is wont to do, Badenoch should challenge Labour on the economy and particularly taxation.

The combination of a gloomy economic outlook, not helped by Trump's trade wars, and Labour's lack of connection with voters gives the Tories an opportunity to appeal to voters who care less about "irrelevant woke wars" than about "their own personal finances". And Badenoch should remember that Farage's character is off-putting to as many centrists as it is attractive to those who have defected to Reform.

Speaking of defectors, Conservative-MP-turned-Reform-candidate Andrea Jenkyns is running for mayor of Greater Lincolnshire in one of the more closely watched contests of the local elections coming up on 1 May. If Jenkyns wins, the Tory party is braced for further defections and a "renewed frenzy over a potential deal or even merger", said Rachel Cunliffe in The New Statesman. But if Jenkyns loses, Reform's momentum may falter. "The party has poured everything it has into Lincolnshire. If it can't win here, doubts will emerge over how solid its polling figures really are."