This week's local elections could bring a historic shift in voting patterns, says one of Britain's leading pollsters.
Professor Sir John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, told The Independent that less than half of those polled planned to vote for Labour or the Conservatives, the two parties that have dominated British politics for a century.
The "big winner" from the shift in voter intentions is likely to be Reform UK. Nigel Farage's insurgent party is on course to pick up hundreds of council seats across England as it looks to establish itself as a genuine alternative to the Tories and Labour.
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The last time these councils were contested was in 2021. That was the high point of Boris Johnson's premiership when the Conservatives won control of dozens of local authorities. Four years on and the picture could not look more different.
Where are elections and when?
Around a third of electors in England are eligible to vote in local elections to be held on Thursday 1 May.
In total, 23 councils will be contested, with more than 1,600 councillors up for election. These include:
14 county councils: Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.
8 unitary authorities: Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, County Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire and Wiltshire.
1 metropolitan district: Doncaster.
Six mayoral elections are also taking place in the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, North Tyneside, Doncaster and – for the first time – in Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire.
In February, the government announced that local elections in East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Suffolk and Surrey, due to also take place on 1 May, would be delayed for one year to allow for the reorganisation of local councils.
No routine elections are taking place in Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland.
Who is eligible to vote?
The BBC, in collaboration with the Electoral Commission, has produced a postcode tool for voters to check if elections are taking place in their area on 1 May.
British citizens, qualifying Commonwealth citizens and those with citizenship of an EU member state are all eligible to vote in local elections, although rules vary according to which country you are from.
If you have not already registered to vote, the deadline has unfortunately already passed.
After changes to the law brought in under the last Tory government, voters in England now need to show photo ID to confirm their identity at polling stations. You can see the list of accepted forms of identification here. The ID document does not need to be in date, as long as the photo is still clearly recognisable.
If you do not possess any of these, you need to apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate not later than Wednesday 23 April.
What ID do you need?
After changes to the law brought in under the last Tory government, voters in England now need to show photo ID to confirm their identity at polling stations. You can see the list of accepted forms of identification here. The ID document does not need to be in date, as long as the photo is still clearly recognisable.
If you do not possess any of these, you can apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate but not in time for this week's local elections as the deadline has also passed.
What are the polls saying?
"They might not span the whole UK," said Left Foot Forward, but the 1 May local elections still offer a "critical litmus test" and "all eyes are on whether Reform's bluster holds up in the ballot box".
Politico's latest poll of polls has the party leading nationally on 25%, ahead of Labour on 23% and the Conservatives on 21%.
The Conservatives, who are defending almost two-thirds of the seats that are up for grabs, are "braced for a hammering", said the Financial Times. Reform is "challenging the main rightwing party across many areas" and the Liberal Democrats are "targeting big gains in the south".
Farage's party "could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government", said Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus.
At the same time, the Lib Dems, who are polling around 15% nationally, are looking to build on their success in last year's general election and replace the Conservatives as the natural "party of Middle England".
"The party believes it can become the second largest in local government by surpassing the Conservatives, as well as making gains in areas where voters have become disaffected with Labour since the general election", said London's The Standard.
As for Labour, this will be Keir Starmer's first major test at the ballot box since last year's general election landslide. With traditionally Labour local councils such as Doncaster and Durham forecast to swing to Reform, the narrative that the far-right populist party is simply a problem for the Conservatives will be "shattered", said Conservative Home.
Things could get even worse for Labour if Reform overturns a huge majority to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election taking place on the same day. With Farage vowing to park his talks on Labour's Red Wall lawn, such a result, The Independent said, would be "disastrous for the government".
