The Virginia governor race is now exactly tied after a brutal Fox News poll for Democrat Terry McAuliffe

The high-stakes Virginia gubernatorial race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin has been narrowing in recent weeks, and now it couldn't get much tighter. After a Fox News poll on Thursday gave Youngkin an 8 percentage point likely-voter lead over McAuliffe — versus McAuliffe's 5-point lead in the same poll two weeks ago — the two candidates are now tied at 47.1 percent each in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Youngking has a 0.4-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average.
"What changed? GOP enthusiasm," Fox News explains. "Likely voters are a subgroup of registered voters, identified mainly based on self-reported vote intention and interest in the election," and 79 percent of Youngkin supporters are "extremely" interested in the election, versus 69 percent of McAuliffe supporters. Youngkin also leads McAuliffe among registered voters polled, but by just 1 point.
"With the race essentially tied among the full registered voter universe, McAuliffe could still pull this off," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducted the Fox News poll with GOP pollster Daron Shaw. "But it would take something big to ignite enthusiasm for McAuliffe's candidacy and a massively effective get-out-the-vote effort." The election is Nov. 2.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Fox News poll was conducted Oct. 24-27 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Co. (R). The pollsters interviewed 1,212 Virginia registered voters, including 1,015 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points for registered voters and ±3 points for likely voters.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Truck drivers are questioning the Trump administration's English mandate
Talking Points Some have praised the rules, others are concerned they could lead to profiling
-
DC prosecutors lose bid to indict sandwich thrower
Speed Read Prosecutors sought to charge Sean Dunn with assaulting a federal officer
-
2 kids killed in shooting at Catholic school mass
Speed Read 17 others were wounded during a morning mass at the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis
-
DC prosecutors lose bid to indict sandwich thrower
Speed Read Prosecutors sought to charge Sean Dunn with assaulting a federal officer
-
White House fires new CDC head amid agency exodus
Speed Read CDC Director Susan Monarez was ousted after butting heads with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccines
-
DOGE put Social Security data at risk, official says
Speed Read DOGE workers made the personal information of hundreds of millions of Americans vulnerable to identity theft
-
Court rejects Trump suit against Maryland US judges
Speed Read Judge Thomas Cullen, a Trump appointee, said the executive branch had no authority to sue the judges
-
Trump expands National Guard role in policing
Speed Read The president wants the Guard to take on a larger role in domestic law enforcement
-
Trump says he's firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Speed Read The move is likely part of Trump's push to get the central bank to cut interest rates
-
Abrego released from jail, faces Uganda deportation
Speed Read The wrongly deported Kilmar Abrego García is expected to be detained at an ICE check-in and deported to Uganda
-
Trump arms National Guard in DC, threatens other cities
speed read His next targets are Chicago, New York and Baltimore