Voters who benefitted from Biden's expanded child tax credit now lean Republican

Voters who benefitted from the expanded child tax credit in 2021 only leaned Democrat as long as the cash kept flowing, a Morning Consult/Politico survey released Wednesday found.

Every two months, voters were asked "if they were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate if the election for Congress in their district were held today."

In December, the generic Democrat beat the generic Republican 49-37 among child tax credit (CTC) recipients. By February, that lead had dropped to 44-43 — within the margin of error. By April, the generic Republican had pulled ahead, beating the generic Democrat 46-43.

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Among all voters, the parties remain tied at 43 percent, though a separate Morning Consult/Politico poll from last month showed that Republicans have a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm.

The American Rescue Plan, which President Biden signed on March 11, 2021, increased the child tax credit from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child over the age of six and $3,600 per child under the age of six. It also distributed the tax credit in the form of direct monthly payments to parents. One study found that the expanded CTC kept over three million children per month above the poverty line.

Extending the CTC expansion was a key part of Biden's Build Back Better plan. After the bill failed to pass, the expansion expired at the end of 2021.

The surveys of CTC beneficiaries were conducted on Dec. 18-20, 2021; Feb. 5-6, 2022; and April 1-4, 2022. Each surveyed around 2,000 respondents and has an error margin of 2.5 percent.