How will the next pope change the Catholic Church?

Pope Benedict was an ardent defender of Catholic traditions. Pope Francis, who died Monday, chose a more liberal direction. Which way will the church, famously resistant to change, move under his successor?

"Papal successions are not like presidential transitions," said Anthony Faiola and Michelle Boorstein at The Washington Post. New popes do not "openly set about undoing the legacy" of their predecessors. But much can change in "style, emphasis, guidance and law." Francis backed away from the Latin Mass, allowed priestly blessings of same-sex couples and moved to decentralize the power of the church. But those changes didn't come without controversy, and could be reversed. "These innovations have been contested and rejected by many Catholics," said Rev. Gerald Murray. The next pope could "restate perennial Catholic doctrine."

Leading a church in decline

Francis "bent but did not break doctrinal orthodoxy," said Ed Kilgore at New York magazine. Those who hoped to see "full acceptance of gay or divorced Catholics" or the embrace of women in the clergy were disappointed, but the late pontiff "may have opened doors once firmly closed to future consideration." Francis reshaped the College of Cardinals that will choose his successor, making it more diverse, but he was "less concerned about doctrinal conformity" in his choices, putting both progressives and traditionalists in key positions. Everything is in play: The new pope could "be a protege of Francis, or someone inclined to turn back clocks."

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Another challenge is that there is a "declining number of Catholics worldwide," said Axios, with many Latinos shifting instead to Charismatic Pentecostalism. One of the "greatest failures" of Francis is that "he didn't focus on evangelism," said Andrew Chesnut, the Bishop Walter F. Sullivan chair in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University. The next pope will likely "put some focus on appealing to evangelicals," said Axios.

'The de-Westernization of the church'

The selection of a new pope is "as much political balancing act as spiritual exercise," said Katherine Kelaidis at Vox. The conversation usually focuses on "progressive" and "traditionalist" factions in the "global culture wars" and will likely dominate the conclave that chooses the new pontiff. But there are other factors. "What the average Christian looks like and where the average Christian lives" is quickly changing. The church is in decline in North America and Europe, but rising in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Despite that, the church's "power centers have stayed firmly in the West." With Pope Francis' successor, that could begin to change.

Pope Francis "was not considered a radical" when he was chosen by the conclave in 2013, Molly Olmstead said at Slate. It is doubtful the cardinals "knew what they were ushering in." So there is no guarantee the next conclave will choose a successor "who shares Francis' more progressive ideals." Indeed, the "geographically and linguistically diverse cardinals" whom he put in place "barely know each other," increasing the unpredictability of the process. But Francis' key legacy — a church pivot to the "Global South" and away from Europe — is likely to stick. Whoever comes next, it will be difficult for him to "walk back the de-Westernization of the church."