Who will be the next Pope?

The struggle for control of the Catholic Church is intensifying behind the scenes, as potential successors to Pope Francis begin manoeuvring into position.

Most Vatican watchers do not believe retirement is imminent, even if "there are some in the Roman Catholic church who would dearly love another pope to be elected very soon," said The Guardian. But at 88, Francis – born Jorge Mario Bergoglio – is now the oldest Pope in over a century and in increasingly frail health.

Writing earlier this year in his memoir "Life: My Story Through History", Francis said he had never considered following the example of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, and abdicating – a "momentous decision" that "broke a taboo that had lasted for six centuries", said The Times. But he did confirm that, upon becoming pontiff, he had signed a statement to the effect that he would resign if bad health made it impossible for him to perform his duties.

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Who are the frontrunners?

The conclave could return a conservative, whose "appointment would send a powerful message about the direction the Church would be taking", said the Catholic Herald, or "a Pope from the developing world". A pick like the Philippines' Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle "would be hailed by liberals, given the changing demographic of the Church". Tagle has long been seen as the leading frontrunner, or "papabili" (likely to be elected pope) as they are known in Italian, to succeed Francis among both Vatican watchers and bookmakers.

Another cardinal from the developing world, 64-year-old Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, who is also the president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, is also a "strong new contender", wrote John L Allen in the Catholic Herald. Canada's Cardinal Marc Ouellet and Hungary's Cardinal Peter Erdő have also been touted as potential pontiffs.

The dark horse, who could emerge as the compromise candidate, is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, or highest-ranking diplomat. For 11 years he has survived Francis's "regular savage reshuffles", said The Spectator. "He is regarded as a moderate who would be able to repair the damage caused by his boss's outbursts and vendettas."

How does the process work?

The small number of cardinals who meet in the Sistine Chapel to select the next pope "truly is the world's most powerful electorate" for its size, said the Financial Times. Francis – the first non-European pope since the eighth century – has done a "great deal to shape the choice" of the next conclave.

Of the 141 cardinals under 80 years of age after the Dec. 8 consistory, 111 will have been appointed by FrancisOf the 141 cardinals under 80 years of age after the Dec. 8 consistory, 111 will have been appointed by Francis, according to America The Jesuit Review.

Francis has "revolutionised" the College of Cardinals by passing over large archdioceses like Los Angeles, Venice and Milan "in favour of picking men from the peripheries who reflect his pastoral orientation and concern for the poor", said the Manhattan based Catholic magazine. "The result will be a conclave very different from the one that elected him. It will be less Italian, less European and less curial but will be more Asian and African."

In a sign of the influence Francis has on the make-up of the body who chooses his successor, bookmakers forecast a high probability the next pope will assume his papal name, as Francis II.

Yet the dynamics of papal conclaves are "notoriously difficult to predict", wrote author John Thavis in an essay on his website. "I think the cardinals will be looking for someone who can consolidate the changes brought by Pope Francis but who will manage Vatican affairs with more skill and operate with more discretion".

But modern media pressures to wrap up a conclave within a few days and the need to secure a two-thirds majority "increases the likelihood" two strong candidates who continue to divide the vote "might give way to a compromise choice" few expect.