Who will be the next pope – and how is he chosen?

News that Pope Francis is being treated in hospital for double pneumonia as part of a "complex clinical situation" has led to an outpouring of well wishes and prayers for the elderly pontiff – and hushed speculation over who could be in line to replace him if the worst happens.

Writing last year in his memoir "Life: My Story Through History", Francis said he had never considered following the example of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, and abdicating – a "momentous decision" that "broke a taboo that had lasted for six centuries", said The Times. But he did confirm that, upon becoming pontiff, he had signed a statement to the effect that he would resign if bad health made it impossible for him to perform his duties.

Pope Francis has been hospitalised several times during his 12 years as leader of the Roman Catholic Church and has suffered a number of health issues throughout his life. Now aged 88, Francis – born Jorge Mario Bergoglio – is the oldest Pope in over a century.

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How is a new pope chosen?

The rituals surrounding the papal succession date back centuries, but the process has been given a modern revamp after a team of Catholic journalists and researchers compiled a new online guide to every cardinal who will choose the next pontiff.

The College of Cardinals Report – a "slick, interactive website", said Crux – features details of all 252 cardinals, including where they stand on issues such as ordaining female deacons, blessing same-sex unions and making priestly celibacy optional.

Out of the 252 cardinals listed in the report, 138 of them are currently under the age of 80 and so eligible to participate in the conclave – the papal election.

After the death or resignation of a pope, the cardinals are called to convene in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican, where they take an oath of secrecy and are isolated from the outside world. During this time, they can discuss the merits of likely candidates. Open campaigning is not allowed, said the BBC, but it is "still a highly political process".

Voting is held through a series of secret ballots, with each cardinal elector writing a name of choice on a piece of paper. A two-thirds majority is required for any cardinal to win. Four rounds of ballots are held each day until one man receives the required majority. Ballot papers are burnt after each session, giving off smoke that can be seen by onlookers outside. If the smoke is black, the cardinals have failed to reach a decision. White smoke signifies that a new pope has been chosen.

What is the conclave?

The group of cardinals who form the conclave which selects the next pope is "truly is the world's most powerful electorate" for its size, said the Financial Times. Francis – the first non-European pope since the eighth century – has done a "great deal to shape the choice" of the next conclave. Of the 138 cardinals under 80, the vast majority have been appointed by the current Pope, according to America magazine. The total number of electors is technically supposed to be capped at 120, but Francis is not the first pope to go over the limit.

Most of the cardinals will have little inkling of the prospective papal candidates ahead of the conclave, said the College of Cardinals Report. Voting for a pope is not like voting in a political leadership contest, "where the candidates are publicly scrutinised, often ad nauseam". A small number of the conclave will be curial cardinals, working in the Roman Curia that assists the Pope in carrying out his governance of the Church, but the majority will be archbishops, serving in dioceses around the world.

Francis has "revolutionised" the College of Cardinals by passing over large archdioceses like Los Angeles, Venice and Milan "in favour of picking men from the peripheries who reflect his pastoral orientation and concern for the poor", said America magazine. "The result will be a conclave very different from the one that elected him. It will be less Italian, less European and less curial but will be more Asian and African."

Who are the frontrunners?

While some Catholic commentators think it disrespectful to speculate on who the next pope will be while the current one is still alive, attention is already focusing on the cardinals currently deemed potential papal candidates: known in Italian as the 'papabili'.

The conclave could return a conservative, whose "appointment would send a powerful message about the direction the Church would be taking", said the Catholic Herald, or "a Pope from the developing world". A pick like the Philippines' Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle "would be hailed by liberals, given the changing demographic of the Church".

Tagle has long been one of the leading papabili, among both Vatican watchers and bookmakers. However, in November, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, or highest-ranking diplomat, became the favourite with the bookmakers. For 11 years he has survived Francis' "regular savage reshuffles", said Damian Thompson in The Spectator. "He is regarded as a moderate who would be able to repair the damage caused by his boss's outbursts and vendettas."

Other longstanding favourites include Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson – whose softening views on LGBT+ rights is being seen by some as an attempt to win favour with liberals – Hungary's conservative Cardinal Peter Erdő, and Canada's Cardinal Marc Ouellet.

Whoever becomes the next pope, bookmakers believe there is a 50% chance he will choose the name Francis II. Other names being touted include John Paul, Leo and John.