Who will be the next pope – and how is he chosen?

The Vatican has released the first photo of Pope Francis since his hospitalisation on 14 February. Taken from behind, the photo shows the 88-year-old pontiff sitting in a wheelchair in the chapel of the Gemelli hospital in Rome. "I am facing a period of trial," the Pope said, in a message published by the Vatican, "and I join with so many brothers and sisters who are sick: fragile, at this time, like me."

Pope Francis' condition is now stable, and his respiratory therapy and physiotherapy continue, said Vatican News. But with the oldest Pope in over a century having become increasingly frail during his time in office, discreet preparations are inevitably under way, behind the scenes, for the transition period facing the Catholic Church when the moment comes to choose Francis' successor.

How is a new pope chosen?

The rituals surrounding the papal succession date back centuries, but the process has been given a modern revamp after a team of Catholic journalists and researchers compiled a new online guide to every cardinal who will choose the next pontiff.

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The College of Cardinals Report – a "slick, interactive website", said Crux – features details of all 252 cardinals, including where they stand on issues such as ordaining female deacons, blessing same-sex unions and making priestly celibacy optional.

Out of the 252 cardinals listed in the report, 137 of them are currently under the age of 80 and so eligible to participate in the conclave – the papal election.

After the death or resignation of a pope, the cardinals are called to convene in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican, where they take an oath of secrecy and are isolated from the outside world. During this time, they can discuss the merits of likely candidates. Open campaigning is not allowed, said the BBC, but it is "still a highly political process".

Voting is held through a series of secret ballots, with each cardinal elector writing a name of choice on a piece of paper. A two-thirds majority is required for any cardinal to win, although if the number of cardinal electors is not divisible by three, one additional vote is required. Four rounds of ballots are held each day until one man receives the required majority. Ballot papers are burnt after each session, giving off smoke that can be seen by onlookers outside. If the smoke is black, the cardinals have failed to reach a decision. White smoke signifies that a new pope has been chosen.

What is the conclave?

The group of cardinals who form the conclave which selects the next pope is "truly is the world's most powerful electorate" for its size, said the Financial Times. Francis – the first non-European pope since the eighth century – has done a "great deal to shape the choice" of the next conclave. Of the 138 cardinals under 80, the vast majority have been appointed by the current Pope, according to America magazine. The total number of electors is technically supposed to be capped at 120, but Francis is not the first pope to go over the limit.

Most of the cardinals will have little inkling of the prospective papal candidates ahead of the conclave, said the College of Cardinals Report. Voting for a pope is not like voting in a political leadership contest, "where the candidates are publicly scrutinised, often ad nauseam". A small number of the conclave will be curial cardinals, working in the Roman Curia that assists the Pope in carrying out his governance of the Church, but the majority will be archbishops, serving in dioceses around the world.

Francis has "revolutionised" the College of Cardinals by passing over large archdioceses like Los Angeles, Venice and Milan "in favour of picking men from the peripheries who reflect his pastoral orientation and concern for the poor", said America magazine. "The result will be a conclave very different from the one that elected him. It will be less Italian, less European and less curial but will be more Asian and African."

Who are the frontrunners?

For many Catholic commentators, overt speculation on who the next pope might be while the current one is still alive is disrespectful. But attention has inevitably been drawn to the cardinals who are potential papal candidates – known in Italian as the papabili. The front runners span a spectrum of backgrounds and ideological standpoints, so the conclave's eventual choice could well change the future direction of the Church.

But the unpredictability of the process, in which cardinals are sequestered for days of voting, means that all speculation is flawed, said U.S. Catholic. They "do a lot of praying to the Holy Spirit, who is full of surprises".

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italy: A "consummate Vatican diplomat", 70-year-old Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin is Pope Francis' secretary of state and the current favourite to succeed him. He is known for brokering both the US-Cuba thaw, 10 years ago, and the 2018 Vatican-China agreement. Given current geopolitical volatility, the cardinal electors might well see the need for a diplomat, said U.S. Catholic. For 11 years he has survived Francis' "regular savage reshuffles", said Damian Thompson in The Spectator. "He is regarded as a moderate who would be able to repair the damage caused by his boss's outbursts and vendettas."

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Philippines: Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, has long been a leading papabili among Vatican watchers and bookmakers. He is "media-savvy, charismatic, and joyful" said U.S. Catholic. If elected, he would be the first Asian pope and the "first truly fluent English-speaking pope in history" (at least since Adrian IV, who was born in Hertfordshire and held the office in the 1150s). Cardinal Tagle is comfortable showing emotion and has a playful, folksy manner, said the College of Cardinals Report. His left-leaning politics are similar to Pope Francis' relatively progressive views on social justice issues.

Cardinal Peter Turkson, Ghana: Multilingual biblical scholar Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, has been described as charming and softly spoken and has long been considered a front runner. However, his relatively liberal views on homosexuality, ecology and social justice put him at odds with some fellow cardinals as well as bishops in his own country of Ghana. While there is enthusiasm for electing a pope from Africa, where the Catholic population is growing, Cardinal Turkson is not generally seen as a unifying candidate.

Cardinal Péter Erdő, Hungary: An award-winning scholar and intellectual, Cardinal Péter Erdő, 72, is more conservative than the current pope and is seen as a potential "consensus choice", said U.S. Catholic. He was brought up under a communist regime – his family fled with just the clothes on their backs when invading Soviet troops burned down their house in 1956 – and he has since overseen his country's church while Hungarian democracy slides into autocracy, "a possibly applicable skillset these days".