New studies and patents are "increasingly less likely to break with the past in ways that push science and technology in new directions," according to a 2023 paper that found a lack of disruptive scientific discoveries.
"This pattern holds universally across fields and is robust," said the paper published in Nature. And such a lack of innovative science may lead to a lack of economic growth. Despite these findings, not all scientists necessarily agree, arguing that science changes over time and so does what counts as "disruptive."
Scientific research has significantly more barriers than before. "Modern-day researchers have much less freedom to go in unusual directions because of the rigid structures of academic careers and funding," said Nature. On top of this, there is "intensifying pressure to publish," causing researchers to "salami-slice" and spread their ideas "more thinly across more papers and reducing the disruptiveness or novelty of each article."
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While it seems like there are fewer major findings, "over the long term, science hardly looks like a steady accumulation of earth-shattering discoveries," said The New European. It is also difficult to define what qualifies as a disruptive discovery. "There's no way we can measure something like this with the certainty of measuring an object's temperature or mass." In addition, it has "long been noted that review panels for funding agencies are conservative, favoring the safe but mediocre."
The seeming lack of disruptive science may be related to the nature of science itself. Science becomes "more complex as it matures," said University of Georgia professor John Drake at Forbes. "The simplest questions are often the first to be answered, and what remains are challenges that are more subtle, more interdependent and more difficult to resolve." But "this does not necessarily imply stagnation." Actually, the "frontier of science has expanded — not narrowed," Drake added. "If we consider scientific knowledge as a volume, then it is bounded by an outer edge where discovery occurs." Instead, the "surface area also expands, and it is along this widening frontier, where the known meets the unknown, that innovation arises."
What next?
Disruptive science stagnation is likely only going to get worse. The National Science Foundation, responsible for billions of dollars in research grants throughout the country, has seen record levels of budget cuts by the Trump administration. Research devoted to diversity, equity and inclusion, as well as misinformation research, has been gutted the most. A total of 1,753 grants "worth nearly $1.4 billion across numerous areas of research" have been affected, said CNN. "The result will be slower economic growth, less innovation and new tech startups, and even more diminished competitiveness vis-à-vis China," said Robert Atkinson, the president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, to The New York Times.
As a result of these budget cuts, 16 states have sued the administration. "Institutions will not be able to maintain essential research infrastructure and will be forced to significantly scale back or halt research, abandon numerous projects and lay off staff," said the states in the lawsuit. This will lead to fewer research scientists in the country. "You can't have science without scientists," said Rep. Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, to the Times.
