Scotland could hold a second independence referendum as soon as 2028, First Minister John Swinney has said.
Speaking ahead of Holyrood elections next month, the SNP leader said it was “perfectly conceivable” that a vote to separate from the rest of the UK could be held within two years, provided his party secured a majority.
Current polling suggests this remains a long shot, and that a majority of Scots oppose independence, but this has not stopped Swinney from urging voters to deliver an “emphatic mandate” to the nationalists “so the future of our country can be taken into our own hands”.
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Here are the arguments for and against an independent Scotland.
Pro: rejoin the European Union
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 62% of Scottish voters called for the UK to remain in the European Union, compared to England’s 46.6% of Remain voters.
In the years since, “attitudes towards Brexit have become deeply intertwined with where people stand on Scotland’s constitutional status”, said the National Centre for Social Research.
Analysis of data from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey and the Scottish Centre for Social Research shows that “on most issues, voters are more likely to think that Scotland would be better off inside the EU but outside the UK, than inside the UK but outside the EU”.
As an independent country, Scotland could make a bid to rejoin the EU as a member state once a separation agreement was settled with England. The country could then begin to negotiate its access agreement, looking to benefit from access to the EU single market, as well as the free movement of labour, goods, services and capital.
But “political support around the EU table” could pose a challenge, said Politico. Spain, for example, “has professed opposition to Scottish membership due to its possible implications for Catalonia”, with concerns that other separatist movements across Europe could follow Scotland’s lead.
Con: trading problems
“The rest of the UK is by far Scotland’s biggest trading partner,” said Economics Observatory, a relationship that could be put to the test if Scotland were to opt for independence. In 2023 – the most recent year for which figures are available – the UK accounted for 60% of Scottish exports, with an estimated value of £55.4 billion.
Scotland’s sales to the rest of the UK are worth more than three times its exports to the EU, which brought in just over £17 billion in 2023, according to the Scottish government’s official website.
This could become more complicated still if the country were to rejoin the EU, thereby “tearing Scotland out of the customs union and single market of the United Kingdom”, said The Spectator. Analysis indicates that EU membership “would not offset Scotland’s economic losses from increased border costs with the rest of the UK” should a hard trade border be imposed, said the Economics Observatory.
Pro: power over policy
“The loudest arguments made around Scottish independence focus on the issue of self-determination,” said Politics.co.uk.
While it enjoys some autonomy under devolution, a fully independent Scottish government would have control over constitutional matters, health, energy, environmental policies, and immigration. It would also be able to dictate its defence, social security and foreign policies.
In its “Building a New Scotland” reports, the Scottish government has laid out its vision for an independent Scotland. It includes creating its own constitution, introducing a Scottish pound, setting up an independent Scottish central bank and reforming employment law.
Yet “many unionists believe that the nationalist proposition would not stand up to scrutiny from an inquiring electorate during a campaign”, said the Financial Times. Sam Taylor, of These Islands, a pro-union group, said that “independence as an abstract and distant concept is much more popular than painful details”.
Con: debt and deficit dilemma
Economic policy and growth are “at the heart of debates about the effects of independence on Scotland’s public finances”, said the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS). While it remains in the union, Scotland’s budget deficit “is subsumed within the wider UK budget deficit” but “under independence, that would change”.
In 2024-25 Scotland’s notional deficit increased by more than the UK’s, with its net fiscal balance recording a deficit of £26.2 billion, or 11.6% of GDP, compared to the UK-wide deficit of just 5.1% of GDP.
Analysis from the IFS showed that people in Scotland benefit from £2,576 more per head of additional spending than the UK average, as a result of the redistribution of wealth throughout the UK – known as the Barnett Formula.
Pro: vote left, get right
“In terms of political identity, Scotland has traditionally sat further left than England on the political spectrum,” said Politics.co.uk.
Despite the large number of powers now held by the Scottish Parliament, the SNP has enjoyed electoral success over the past decades by emphasising the benefits of being free from Conservative governments in Westminster.
While the return of Labour would have been expected to usher in a period of greater ideological alignment between Westminster and Holyrood, discontent with Keir Starmer and the rise of Reform UK has been utilised by progressive nationalists to warn voters that Scotland could one day come under the control of a far-right government led by Nigel Farage.
Con: position on world stage
At least in the short term, Scotland would lose its access to transnational organisations including the global trade division at the UN, the G7 and Nato, which is currently granted through its union with the rest of the UK. The country would need to apply for independent membership of these organisations.
Without representation at these organisations, Scotland could lose its ability to have its voice heard on global issues including climate change and international peacekeeping.
This has taken on a “renewed importance” as the global security environment “deteriorates” and Europe is ramping up defence spending, said The Herald.
The Scottish independence movement has long been anti-nuclear – both in terms of weapons and power – yet these are areas that will be increasingly prominent as Europe rearms against the Russian threat in the face of US withdrawal.
A poll last year reported by the Scottish Daily Express found most Scots believe that they are more secure and have more influence as part of the UK, and also want to retain the nuclear deterrent, in a “blow” to the Scottish independence movement.
