Ten years ago today, this meteorologist predicted the impact of Hurricane Katrina with devastating accuracy

Meteorologists get a lot of flak for getting the weather wrong, but 10 years ago, one meteorologist made a forecast that was eerily prescient. As Hurricane Katrina brewed in the Gulf of Mexico, National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Ricks of Slidell, Louisiana, predicted that it would be "a most powerful hurricane with unprecedented strength...rivaling the intensity of Hurricane Camille of 1969."
Unfortunately, Ricks' prediction was largely ignored in the run-up to the hurricane. As he told NBC News years later, "I would much rather have been wrong in this one. I would much rather be talking to you and taking the heat and crying wolf. But our local expertise said otherwise."
It wasn't just the strength of the hurricane that Ricks predicted either — he also forecasted the breadth of damage the monstrous storm eventually wreaked. Ricks wrote:
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks...perhaps longer. At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail...leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.The majority of industrial buildings will become non functional. Partial to complete wall and roof failure is expected. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block low rise apartments will sustain major damage...including some wall and roof failure.High rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously...A few to the point of a total collapse. All windows will blow out." [Twitter]
Ricks went on to detail the spread of airborne debris and its devastating effects: a power outage that "will last for weeks," and water shortages that "will make human suffering incredible by modern standards." For once, it would've been nice if the weatherman had been wrong.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Book reviews: ‘Red Scare: Blacklists, McCarthyism, and the Making of Modern America’ and ‘How to End a Story: Collected Diaries, 1978–1998’
Feature A political ‘witch hunt’ and Helen Garner’s journal entries
By The Week US Published
-
The backlash against ChatGPT's Studio Ghibli filter
The Explainer The studio's charming style has become part of a nebulous social media trend
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Why are student loan borrowers falling behind on payments?
Today's Big Question Delinquencies surge as the Trump administration upends the program
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Severe storms kill dozens across central US
Speed Read At least 40 people were killed over the weekend by tornadoes, wildfires and dust storms
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Rain helps Los Angeles wildfires, risks mudslides
Speed Read The weather provided relief for crews working to contain wildfires, though rain over a burn area ups the chances of flooding and mudslides
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Death toll rises in LA fires as wind lull allows progress
Speed Read At least 24 people have died and 100,000 people are under mandatory evacuation orders
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden cancels Italy trip as raging LA fires spread
Speed Read The majority of the fires remain 0% contained
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Fast-spreading Los Angeles wildfires spark panic
Speed Read About 30,000 people were under an evacuation order as the inferno spread
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Hundreds feared dead in French Mayotte cyclone
Speed Read Cyclone Chido slammed into Mayotte, a French territory in the Indian Ocean
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Thirteen missing after Red Sea tourist boat sinks
Speed Read The vessel sank near the Egyptian coastal town of Marsa Alam
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Global plastics summit starts as COP29 ends
Speed Read Negotiators gathering in South Korea seek an end to the world's plastic pollution crisis, though Trump's election may muddle the deal
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published