Trump leads first national 2016 poll by 17 points

New year, same big lead for Donald Trump. The NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, which came out Tuesday, reveals that Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field by a wide margin in 2016, with 35 percent to second-place Ted Cruz's 18 percent. In third is Marco Rubio with 13 percent, followed by Ben Carson with 9 percent, Jeb Bush with 6 percent, Chris Christie with 4 percent, and Carly Fiorina with 3 percent.
The poll, the first of 2016, also found that the real estate magnate's supporters are very loyal. Over half — 51 percent — of Trump supporters said they would "absolutely" vote for him, while 33 percent said there was a "large chance" they would. Only 36 percent of Cruz supporters say they'd "absolutely" vote for him and just 26 percent of Rubio voters said the same.
The poll, which surveyed 3,181 Republican or Republican-leaning registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
September 14 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday’s political cartoons include RFK Jr on the hook, the destruction of discourse, and more
-
Air strikes in the Caribbean: Trump’s murky narco-war
Talking Point Drug cartels ‘don’t follow Marquess of Queensberry Rules’, but US military air strikes on speedboats rely on strained interpretation of ‘invasion’
-
Crossword: September 14, 2025
The Week's daily crossword puzzle
-
House posts lewd Epstein note attributed to Trump
Speed Read The estate of Jeffrey Epstein turned over the infamous 2003 birthday note from President Donald Trump
-
Supreme Court allows 'roving' race-tied ICE raids
Speed Read The court paused a federal judge's order barring agents from detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in LA based on race
-
South Korea to fetch workers detained in Georgia raid
Speed Read More than 300 South Korean workers detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant will be released
-
DC sues Trump to end Guard 'occupation'
Speed Read D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb argues that the unsolicited military presence violates the law
-
RFK Jr. faces bipartisan heat in Senate hearing
Speed Read The health secretary defended his leadership amid CDC turmoil and deflected questions about the restricted availability of vaccines
-
White House defends boat strike as legal doubts mount
Speed Read Experts say there was no legal justification for killing 11 alleged drug-traffickers
-
Epstein accusers urge full file release, hint at own list
speed read A rally was organized by Reps. Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie, who are hoping to force a vote on their Epstein Files Transparency Act
-
Court hands Harvard a win in Trump funding battle
Speed Read The Trump administration was ordered to restore Harvard's $2 billion in research grants