June 27, 2016

Donald Trump is returning from a weekend in Scotland to a terrible new poll from The Washington Post/ABC News, and while he'll likely ignore the survey, other Republicans might be concerned. In the poll, conducted June 20-23, Hillary Clinton opens up a 12-point lead, beating Trump 51 percent to 39 percent among registered voters; in the last Washington Post/ABC News survey in May, Trump led Clinton 46 percent to 44 percent. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, also released Sunday, Clinton leads Trump by just 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton's rise is due in part to supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders coming over to Clinton's side — in the May Washington Post/ABC News poll, 20 percent of Sanders voters said they would support Trump, versus 8 percent in the new poll — but mostly because of Trump's unforced errors. For example, 68 percent of voters (including 39 percent of Republicans) said Trump's comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel, who is overseeing a Trump University fraud lawsuit, were racist, and 85 percent said they were inappropriate, including 71 percent of Republicans. Voters approved of Clinton's response to the Orlando nightclub massacre over Trump's by an 18-point margin, and 66 percent of voters said Trump's comments about women, minorities, and Muslims are "unfairly biased."

It's not all great news for Clinton — 56 percent in the Washington Post/ABC poll disapprove of her handing of email while secretary of state, 18 percent who think Trump is racist plan to vote for him anyway, and Trump leads her 64 percent to 26 percent among the 56 percent of voters who want the next president to lead the country in a new direction. (Confusingly, President Obama's approval rating is 56 percent in the poll.) But 61 percent of voters said Clinton is qualified to be president, while 64 percent say Trump is not qualified, including 56 percent who say they feel that strongly and almost a third of Republicans.

In both the Washington Post/ABC poll, which has a margin of error of ±4 points, and the WSJ/NBC poll, with a ±3.1 points margin of error, 79 percent of Republicans backed Trump, while at least 85 percent of Democrats supported Clinton. When Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party's Jill Stein were included, Clinton's lead shrank to 1 point in the WSJ/NBC poll (Johnson: 10 percent; Stein 6 percent), while in the Washington Post/ABC poll she retained a 10-point lead over Trump (Johnson: 7 percent; Stein: 3 percent). Peter Weber

12:05 p.m.

Just one day after a major sponsor of the Washington Redskins issued a rebuke of the football team's controversial name, the franchise announced it will "review" the moniker. FedEx, "a Fortune 100 company that for more than two decades has tied its brand to that of the team," as The Washington Post reports, made the request on Thursday after investors worth more than $620 billion in assets urged the company to cut ties with the team unless the name was changed. Nike, another sponsor, removed Redskins merchandise from its online store Thursday.

The move is significant because it suggests the battle over sports team names "has shifted from moral appeals to business and political tactics," the Post says, especially as the U.S. grapples with its long history of racial inequality in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody.

FedEx owns the naming rights to the team's stadium in Maryland, so its opinion could matter quite a lot. Team owner Daniel Snyder has long been pressured to change the team's name, but he's previously claimed the name honors Native Americans. This is the first time he's relented. "This process allows the team to take into account not only the proud tradition and history of the franchise but also input from our alumni, the organization, sponsors, the National Football League, and the local community it is proud to represent on and off the field," Snyder said in a statement.

Read more at The Washington Post. Jessica Hullinger

11:21 a.m.

As coronavirus cases continue to surge in the U.S., overwhelming hospitals and bringing state-wide reopening plans to a halt, many might be wondering where the next hotspots will be. Unfortunately, that's somewhat hard to predict, as "the infection curve rose in 40 of the 50 states heading into the July Fourth holiday weekend," The Associated Press reports. But we can make some educated guesses.

The states with the most severe outbreaks at present are Arizona, Florida, Texas, and California, which "reported a combined 25,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases Thursday," AP says. But Georgia "is among the most worrying states right now," says Robinson Meyer at The Atlantic. Over the last week, the Peach State reported more than 14,800 new cases, and this can't be chalked up to more testing: "At the beginning of June, about one in 14 tests came back positive. Last week, about one in nine tests did; today, one in seven tests did," Meyer says.

Another state to watch is Ohio, "which saw new cases rise much faster than tests this week," Meyer reports. The percentage of positive tests has also doubled in Kansas, Montana, Michigan, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and South Carolina. "In Nevada, it has tripled. In Idaho, it is five times higher," according to AP.

Meanwhile, the Northeast, which was the early epicenter for the virus, has seen new infections drop significantly. Of the states seeing a downward trend in infections, only two — Nebraska and South Dakota — are outside the Northeast. "What seems to unite many of the most affected states is that they reopened indoor dining, bars, and gyms," Meyer says. "What will distinguish them is how they react now." Jessica Hullinger

10:27 a.m.

Tucker Carlson for president? It's not inconceivable.

According to Politico, a number of Republican Party insiders are hoping the Fox News host will "parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024," believing he could be the next-generation leader of Trumpism. It's undeniable that Carlson has a massive platform from which he could make his pitch. As Politico reports, Tucker Carlson Tonight is the most watched cable news program in history, and Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush's super PAC in 2016, told Politico this would make him a "formidable" candidate. But if he were to become the nominee, a "debate over the future of the party" would erupt, Politico says, about "whether Trump was an aberration or a party-realigning disrupter — a fight that will be all the fiercer if Trump loses in November."

Carlson's high ratings come alongside an advertiser exodus following his on-air claim that the Black Lives Matter movement "is definitely not about Black lives. Remember that when they come for you, and at this rate, they will." His ability to repeatedly withstand a barrage of backlash seems to be one of his selling points for the Republican base. "What he's been saying speaks for a lot of people, and it's basically not expressed or serviced by most Republican politicians," Rich Lowry, editor of the conservative National Review, told Politico. "There's a lot to be said for being fearless, and he is, while Republican politicians, as a breed, are not."

The question, though, is: Would Carlson run? According to one former top political aide to Trump, Carlson is "disgusted" with politicians, so he probably won't be interested in becoming one. He also has zero political experience under his belt, but as Lowry notes: "Political experience matters less than it once did."

Read more at Politico. Jessica Hullinger

8:13 a.m.

As President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence continue to host events in areas hard-hit by the coronavirus crisis, the Secret Service agents assigned to look after them are starting to fear for their own health and safety, The Washington Post reports.

"The heightened risk of agents getting sick" while preparing for rallies in states like Arizona and Oklahoma "has begun to frazzle agents and their families," the Post reports, citing people close to agents. Their worries aren't unfounded: The Post says Pence was forced to duck out of a "Faith in America" campaign rally scheduled for Tuesday in Arizona after some of his Secret Service agents displayed coronavirus symptoms and at least one tested positive. Pence postponed his visit until Wednesday so that new, healthy agents could be brought in.

This is the second time recently that Secret Service agents have contracted the virus while prepping for an event for the administration. Two agents tested positive before Trump's controversial rally in Tulsa on June 20, and at least eight campaign staff members who helped plan the event have also tested positive. Catherine Milhoan, the director of communications for the Secret Service, told The New York Times that "the health and safety of our work force, their families, and that of our protectees remains the agency's highest priority." Jessica Hullinger

7:30 a.m.

President Trump will start the three-day Independence Day weekend at Mount Rushmore, where 7,500 people are expected to attend a fireworks display Friday, The Associated Press reports. South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem (R), a Trump ally, said masks will be optional at the event, and social distancing won't be required. That prompted objections from local officials, including the Republican mayor of nearby Rapid City, Steve Allender.

Leaders of several Native American tribes in the region also warned the event could result in a coronavirus spike among their members. "The president is putting our tribal members at risk to stage a photo op at one of our most sacred sites," said Harold Frazier, chairman of the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe.

In many states, leaders are encouraging residents to limit their July 4 celebrations to help stem the spread of the coronavirus. Harold Maass

5:50 a.m.

The United States hit another grim milestone in the coronavirus pandemic Thursday, recording 55,220 new daily cases, according to The Washington Post. Georgia and Florida both set single-day records — Georgia reported 3,472 new daily cases, while Florida recorded a staggering 10,109 cases Thursday, up more than 3,500 from Wednesday's record-breaking total. "It's the 25th consecutive day that Florida has set a record high in its seven-day rolling average," the Post says.

Texas reported nearly 8,000 new cases Thursday, and in Houston, hospitals are being forced to transfer patients to facilities in other parts of the state as intensive care units near capacity due to the surge in COVID-19 patients. "We're running out of ICU beds," Harris Health Systems spokesman Bryan McLeod told ABC News. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) mandated everyone in the state wear masks in public to help slow the spread of the virus.

There have been more than 11 million coronavirus cases worldwide, with 521,000 global deaths. While cases continue to skyrocket in the U.S., there hasn't been a corresponding surge in the death toll. However, a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine said the true COVID-19 death toll may be significantly higher than what's being reported. Jessica Hullinger

July 2, 2020

Poll after poll has shown former Vice President Joe Biden with a growing lead over President Trump, and with COVID-19 cases surging again, the president's approval level is sinking as well. It's all leading Trump to claim "the polls are all fake" and, when he does believe them, beg for advice to turn it all around, Vanity Fair reports.

In recent days, Trump has appeared "down in the dumps," Republicans who have spoken with him tell Vanity Fair. "People around him think his heart's not in it," one Republican close to the White House said of his campaign. Trump is reportedly stuck between appealing to his base and suburban voters, leading him to even call Fox News' Tucker Carlson last week and beg "What do I do? What do I do?"

In other instances, Trump has appeared in denial of his sputtering campaign and claimed "the polls are all fake," a Republican in touch with Trump tells Vanity Fair. But at other times he reportedly believes the polls — and blames them on his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner. But the reported blame games haven't stopped the bad news from pouring in, namely when it comes to the resumption of campaign rallies where Trump usually thrives. With coronavirus spreading throughout Florida and a mandatory mask policy now in place in Jacksonville, the Trump campaign is reportedly ready to cancel his 15,000-person rally at the Republican National Convention next month "so that Trump doesn’t suffer another Tulsa–like humiliation," Vanity Fair writes.

Read more about Trump's growing campaign woes at Vanity Fair. Kathryn Krawczyk

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