If you are Team Clinton or Team Never Trump, Monday morning offered a brutal wake-up call. Since the Republican convention, Donald Trump has now passed Clinton in two national polls (and in the RealClearPolitics average), and is projected to win the election were it to be held today, as shown in FiveThirtyEight's models:
There is a sliver of good news for Clinton supporters, though; FiveThirtyEight's poll-plus model, which corrects for Trump's post-convention surge, shows her still in the lead:
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
FiveThirtyEight's leading statistician, Nate Silver, accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election and correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states in 2012. Last week he tweeted, "Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now."
-
5 hilariously incriminating cartoons about the Epstein filesCartoons Artists take on an Epstein Thanksgiving, solving the puzzle, and more
-
Political cartoons for November 15Cartoons Saturday's political cartoons include cowardly congressmen, a Macy's parade monster, and more
-
Massacre in the favela: Rio’s police take on the gangsIn the Spotlight The ‘defence operation’ killed 132 suspected gang members, but could spark ‘more hatred and revenge’
-
Trump DOJ sues to block California redistrictingSpeed Read California’s new congressional map was drawn by Democrats to flip Republican-held House seats
-
GOP retreats from shutdown deal payout provisionSpeed Read Senators are distancing themselves from a controversial provision in the new government funding package
-
Catholic bishops rebuke Trump on immigrationSpeed Read ‘We feel compelled’ to ‘raise our voices in defense of God-given human dignity,’ the bishops said
-
House releases Epstein emails referencing TrumpSpeed Read The emails suggest Trump knew more about Epstein’s sex trafficking of underage women than he has claimed
-
Newsom slams Trump’s climate denial at COP30speed read Trump, who has called climate change a ‘hoax,’ declined to send any officials to this week’s summit
-
UK, Colombia halt intel to US over boat attacksSpeed Read Both countries have suspended intelligence sharing with the US over the bombing of civilian boats suspected of drug smuggling
-
Trump pardons 2020 fake electors, other GOP alliesSpeed Read The president pardoned Rudy Giuliani and more who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss
-
Supreme Court to decide on mail-in ballot limitsSpeed Read The court will determine whether states can count mail-in ballots received after Election Day
