If you are Team Clinton or Team Never Trump, Monday morning offered a brutal wake-up call. Since the Republican convention, Donald Trump has now passed Clinton in two national polls (and in the RealClearPolitics average), and is projected to win the election were it to be held today, as shown in FiveThirtyEight's models:
There is a sliver of good news for Clinton supporters, though; FiveThirtyEight's poll-plus model, which corrects for Trump's post-convention surge, shows her still in the lead:
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
FiveThirtyEight's leading statistician, Nate Silver, accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election and correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states in 2012. Last week he tweeted, "Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now."
-
AI workslop is muddying the American workplaceThe explainer Using AI may create more work for others
-
Japan poised to get first woman prime ministerSpeed Read The ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi
-
The 5 best mob movies of all timeThe Week Recommends If you don’t like a good gangster flick, just fuhgeddaboudit
-
Judge bars Trump’s National Guard moves in OregonSpeed Read In an emergency hearing, a federal judge blocked President Donald Trump from sending National Guard troops into Portland
-
Museum head ousted after Trump sword gift denialSpeed Read Todd Arrington, who led the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library and Museum, denied the Trump administration a sword from the collection as a gift for King Charles
-
Trump declares ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartelsspeed read This provides a legal justification for recent lethal military strikes on three alleged drug trafficking boats
-
Supreme Court rules for Fed’s Cook in Trump feudSpeed Read Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her role following Trump’s attempts to oust her
-
Judge rules Trump illegally targeted Gaza protestersSpeed Read The Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport international students for supporting Palestine is deemed illegal
-
Trump: US cities should be military ‘training grounds’Speed Read In a hastily assembled summit, Trump said he wants the military to fight the ‘enemy within’ the US
-
US government shuts down amid health care standoffSpeed Read Democrats said they won’t vote for a deal that doesn’t renew Affordable Care Act health care subsidies
-
YouTube to pay Trump $22M over Jan. 6 expulsionSpeed Read The president accused the company of censorship following the suspension of accounts post-Capitol riot
