What happened
In a display of President Trump’s continued grip on the Republican base, at least five of the seven challengers he backed in last week’s Indiana GOP state Senate primaries ousted incumbents who defied a White House redistricting push. The defeated Republicans, branded “RINOS” (Republicans in name only) by Trump, joined Indiana Democrats last December in voting down a new congressional map designed to give the GOP two additional House seats. An irate Trump called for the holdouts to be primaried, and pro-Trump PACs funded an attack-ad blitz, turning what would typically be low-key races into a $13.5 million battle royale. Among the losers were Travis Holdman, the Indiana Senate’s third most powerful Republican, and Jim Buck, who had held his seat since 1994. “There’s a big message here,” said U.S. Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). “It’s Donald Trump’s Republican Party.”
Trump scored another win in neighboring Ohio, where the gubernatorial candidate he endorsed, Vivek Ramaswamy, trounced his primary competitor to set up a showdown with Democratic nominee Amy Acton in November. Democrat Sherrod Brown also secured a chance to return to the Senate after a 2024 loss. He’ll square off with appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted in a special election to fill Vice President JD Vance’s vacated seat through 2028. Ohio has established itself as a red state over the past decade, but early polling suggests both races could be competitive. One Republican operative close to Husted called Brown a “tough out,” adding “we’ve got our work cut out for us.”
What the columnists said
“Indiana’s primaries were a referendum on Trumpism,” said James Briggs in The Indianapolis Star, and “Trumpism prevailed.” The president’s challengers not only won, they did so handily, their margins ranging from 18 to 50 percentage points. You “gotta hand it to him.” Despite “the wreckage of his second term,” Trump remains a genius campaigner, “a singular figure who can make it rain on obscure state legislative elections because they happen to be important to him personally.”
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These results “carry implications well beyond Indianapolis,” said Hunter Woodall and Ebony Davis in MS.now. Other Republican-controlled states are “facing similar redistricting pressure” from the White House, and South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana all seem good bets to redraw their maps. Now any GOP state legislators on the gerrymandering fence “have a fresh example” of what awaits them should they cross Trump.
Democrats also have reason to celebrate, said William Kristol in The Bulwark. Their candidate won a Michigan state Senate seat by 20 points in a working-class district, continuing “a trend of notable Democratic overperformance.” The Republican elections were about “loyalty to Trump,” whose popularity is sinking. Recent polling pegs his approval rating at around 37%. A GOP that’s completely in thrall to him might actually “increase the likelihood of voters turning to Democratic candidates” in the midterms.
