Trump is narrowing Clinton's lead in the polls. Is it time for her to worry?


Two national polls released Tuesday show that Donald Trump has stormed back to significantly cut in on Hillary Clinton's lead, perhaps causing some anxiety among voters who are #WithHer. CNN/ORC found the presidential rivals at a dead heat, with Trump ahead 45 percent to Clinton's 43 percent nationally, and a massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll showed Trump with an edge in a couple battleground states, and close behind in others.
At what point is it time for Clinton to start worrying? Nate Silver broke it down at FiveThirtyEight:
What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?My first question would be whether the race has settled into a 4-point Clinton lead, as the polls have it now, or is continuing to trend toward Trump. If I'm still ahead by 4 points or more at the time of the first debate on Sept. 26, I'll feel reasonably good about my position: A Trump comeback would be toward the outer edges of how much trailing candidates have historically been able to move the polls with the debates. If the race gets much closer, though, my list of concerns gets a lot longer. It would include geopolitical events that could work in Trump's favor, third-party candidates who seem to be taking more votes from me than from Trump, and the tendency for incumbent candidates (since Clinton is a quasi-incumbent) to lose ground in the polls after the first debate. [FiveThirtyEight]
If Silver's opinion is any good, Trump is having a lot more sleepless nights than Clinton right now — read what the Republican nominee ought to be concerned about over at FiveThirtyEight.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
Local elections 2025: where are they and who is on course to win?
The Explainer Reform UK predicted to make large gains, with 23 councils and six mayoralties up for grabs
By The Week UK Published
-
What is Starmer's £33m plan to smash 'vile' Channel migration gangs?
Today's Big Question PM lays out plan to tackle migration gangs like international terrorism, with cooperation across countries and enhanced police powers
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Quirky hot cross buns to try this Easter
The Week Recommends Creative, flavourful twists on the classic Easter bake, from tiramisu and stem ginger to a cheesy sharing-size treat
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration
By The Week Staff Published
-
Supreme Court upholds 'ghost gun' restrictions
Speed Read Ghost guns can be regulated like other firearms
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump sets 25% tariffs on auto imports
Speed Read The White House says the move will increase domestic manufacturing. But the steep import taxes could also harm the US auto industry.
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump allies urge White House to admit chat blunder
Speed Read Even pro-Trump figures are criticizing The White House's handling of the Signal scandal
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Waltz takes blame for texts amid calls for Hegseth ouster
Speed Read Democrats are calling for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and national security adviser Michael Waltz to step down
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Judge: Nazis treated better than Trump deportees
speed read U.S. District Judge James Boasberg reaffirmed his order barring President Donald Trump from deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US officials share war plans with journalist in group chat
Speed Read Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg was accidentally added to a Signal conversation about striking Yemen
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Canada's Mark Carney calls snap election
speed read Voters will go to the polls on April 28 to pick a new government
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published