Two national polls released Tuesday show that Donald Trump has stormed back to significantly cut in on Hillary Clinton's lead, perhaps causing some anxiety among voters who are #WithHer. CNN/ORC found the presidential rivals at a dead heat, with Trump ahead 45 percent to Clinton's 43 percent nationally, and a massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll showed Trump with an edge in a couple battleground states, and close behind in others.
At what point is it time for Clinton to start worrying? Nate Silver broke it down at FiveThirtyEight:
What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?My first question would be whether the race has settled into a 4-point Clinton lead, as the polls have it now, or is continuing to trend toward Trump. If I'm still ahead by 4 points or more at the time of the first debate on Sept. 26, I'll feel reasonably good about my position: A Trump comeback would be toward the outer edges of how much trailing candidates have historically been able to move the polls with the debates. If the race gets much closer, though, my list of concerns gets a lot longer. It would include geopolitical events that could work in Trump's favor, third-party candidates who seem to be taking more votes from me than from Trump, and the tendency for incumbent candidates (since Clinton is a quasi-incumbent) to lose ground in the polls after the first debate. [FiveThirtyEight]
If Silver's opinion is any good, Trump is having a lot more sleepless nights than Clinton right now — read what the Republican nominee ought to be concerned about over at FiveThirtyEight.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped trigger the Great Recession. Would an IPO create new dangers?In the Spotlight It depends on the 'implicit guarantee'
-
Oz at the Sphere: AI's latest conquestFeature The Las Vegas Sphere is reimagining The Wizard of Oz with the help of AI
-
Is grad school worth it?the explainer Determine whether the potential for better employment and higher earnings outweighs the upfront cost of school
-
Trump BLS nominee floats ending key jobs reportSpeed Read On Fox News, E.J. Antoni suggested scrapping the closely watched monthly jobs report
-
Trump picks conservative BLS critic to lead BLSspeed read He has nominated the Heritage Foundation's E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics
-
Trump takes over DC police, deploys National GuardSpeed Read The president blames the takeover on rising crime, though official figures contradict this concern
-
Trump sends FBI to patrol DC, despite falling crimeSpeed Read Washington, D.C., 'has become one of the most dangerous cities anywhere in the world,' Trump said
-
Trump officials reinstating 2 Confederate monumentsSpeed Read The administration has plans to 'restore Confederate names and symbols' discarded in the wake of George Floyd's 2020 murder
-
Trump nominates Powell critic for vacant Fed seatspeed read Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers and a fellow critic of Fed chair Jerome Powell, has been nominated to fill a seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
-
ICE scraps age limits amid hiring pushSpeed Read Anyone 18 or older can now apply to be an ICE agent
-
Trump's global tariffs take effect, with new additionsSpeed Read Tariffs on more than 90 US trading partners went into effect, escalating the global trade war
