Following the election of Republican Greg Gianforte to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke's vacated House seat in Montana on Thursday night, Democrats might be feeling pessimistic after a series of close, but ultimately unsuccessful, special elections. Yet "these are tangible signs of progress for Democrats and indicators that the House could be in play in 2018," Axios writes. "Princeton electoral politics statistician Sam Wang, citing a 12-point GOP underperformance in the Kansas race, and a 7-point underperformance in Georgia [which will have a runoff between the Democrat and the Republican candidates in June], emails Axios that 'even a 5-point underperformance in November 2018 would be enough to put House control within reach for Democrats.'"
As it turns out, this could even be a case of history repeating itself. A "similar situation" occurred in 2009 "when three blue-state seats opened up following Obama's win," Axios writes. "The GOP gained ground in each of those special elections (without winning), foreshadowing the 2010 midterms when Republicans picked up 63 seats and took control of the House."
Read the entire analysis at Axios.
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