Speed Reads

midterm season

17 House races move in Democrats' favor, per analyst's projection

Democrats' dreams of winning the House this November are inching closer to reality.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan analyst group at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, tilted 17 House races toward Democrats on Tuesday. Democrats now have an advantage this November — the first time this election cycle that Crystal Ball put either party in the lead.

Most of those 17 spots probably won't end up going to Democrats, Crystal Ball shows. Five have moved from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican" seats, and three moved from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." But eight formerly Republican-leaning districts are now a toss-up. And in Florida's 13th District, Democratic incumbent and former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's seat has been deemed "safe."

Up until this point, Crystal Ball has given both parties a 50-50 chance of controlling the House, but these switches give Democrats a slight advantage. It's especially notable because Crystal Ball projections tend to favor conservatives, Axios says.

One notable switch to watch is in Ohio's 12th District, where a seat vacated by a Republican is up for grabs in an Aug. 7 special election. Crystal Ball moved the race into toss-up territory, and Cook Political Report also labels the race a toss-up.

Check out which races made a move at Sabato's Crystal Ball.