Is Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez about to lose his New Jersey Senate seat?

Scandal might just be killing Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-N.J.) chances at re-election.

The Democrat is running for a third term representing a solidly blue state that voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016. On paper, it's a slam dunk win. Yet he's still in a statistical tie with Republican challenger Bob Hugin, a Stockton University poll released Monday reveals.

Menendez claimed 42.6 percent of likely voters in the Stockton poll, while Hugin got 41.9 percent. That's well within the poll's 4.25 percent margin of error, and a far closer gap than the 6-point lead Menendez had in a Quinnipiac poll two months ago. It's also not a good sign that about 53 percent of surveyed voters found Menendez either "somewhat" or "very unfavorable." Just 21 percent of respondents found Hugin very unfavorable, though 41 percent said they weren't familiar with the Republican.

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Here's the problem for Democrats: Menendez was slammed with corruption charges in 2015 for allegedly using his Senate seat for financial gain. Federal prosecutors said Menendez provided government favors to a wealthy friend in exchange for campaign donations and luxury vacations. The 11-week trial ended in a mistrial, but the Senate Ethic Committee "severely admonished" Menendez earlier this year, and he is set to be retried. Republicans have eagerly made it an issue in the New Jersey campaign.

Nearly 60 percent of surveyed voters say Menendez's corruption charges were an "extremely important" or "significant" factor in deciding who they'd vote for. Cook Political Report still has the New Jersey seat slated as a likely victory for Menendez, but these new poll numbers make Democrats' chances of flipping the Senate seem even slimmer.

Stockton interviewed 531 likely New Jersey voters via cell phone and landline from Sept. 19-27.