Fears of a global recession are on the rise
The escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington has increased fears of a potential global recession.
In May, President Trump moved to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, raising the cap from 10 percent to 25 percent. He also threatened levies on all Chinese goods. If that happens and China retaliates, a global recession could hit within three quarters, Chetan Ahya, global head of economics at Morgan Stanley told CNBC. Things look to be getting worse between China and the U.S. — the two traded barbs all weekend over matters related to trade, technology, and security. Both sides remain quite open to re-opening talks, however, and the hope is that Trump will meet with China's President Xi Jinping later in June at the Group of 20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, in an attempt to ease the tensions.
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In terms of the U.S., specifically, a recession is almost a sure thing, Agence France Presse reports. Nearly every respondent to the quarterly survey from the National Association for Business Economics predicted growth would slow in 2019. The risks are reportedly low in the near term, but are expected to rise rapidly in 2020. The odds for a recession by the end of next year, as reported by the survey, have doubled in the last three months to 60 percent, mostly as a result of the U.S.'s increased focus on protectionist trade policies.
