Nate Silver isn't too high on Deval Patrick's chances

Moderate Democrats have gotten bolder in recent weeks, sensing an opening in the party's presidential primaries. Billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considering jumping into the race and even filed to be on the ballot in Alabama, while former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has officially announced his candidacy.

With former Vice President Joe Biden scuffling a bit, and the failure of any other more centrist candidate aside from South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg to step up and challenge him for those votes, it might seem like a good idea for people like Bloomberg, Patrick, or even Hillary Clinton to throw caution to the wind and run. But FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver isn't so sure, especially in Patrick's case.

Silver points to Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) as candidates with similar pedigrees and positions to Patrick (in that they aren't too far to the center, but also are not strikingly progressive) who have struggled. In an appearance on ABC's This Week on Sunday, Silver suggests that the senators are all perfectly good candidates in a vacuum, but they just can't compete with the bigger names like Biden or Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). As for Patrick? Silver doesn't think he carries the heavyweight reputation to do any more damage than the others who have struggled to make a dent.

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Patrick probably doesn't completely disagree with Silver's analysis. He has described his campaign as a "Hail Mary."