Why phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal 'may be doomed from the start'

Despite Washington and Beijing having agreed to an initial framework, it might not be time to breathe a sigh of relief when it comes to the U.S.-China trade war, says the Peterson Institute for International Economics' Chad Brown.
In fact, Brown says the so-called phase one "may be doomed from the start" thanks to "unrealistic" export targets. Brown finds it highly unlikely China will be able to purchase the additional $200 billion (and then some) worth of U.S. exports by 2021, even when working with generous projections.
If China does fall short of expectations, that could spell trouble for international trade. It could imperil other aspects of the agreement and re-ignite trade tensions by way of U.S. retaliation. But it wouldn't only harm the two superpowers. Brown suggests China could try to hit its U.S. numbers by diverting imports from other trade partners, which could potentially make other deals more challenging.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Other factors could also hamper China's ability to meet the Trump administration's goals, including the U.S. restricting exports on tech products on national security grounds, fallout from previous tariffs, and even the outbreak of African swine fever on China's pig stock, which has reduced the country's demand for key American products like soybeans.
All told, Brown hints that a lot could still go wrong. Read more at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
Today's political cartoons - February 23, 2025
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - loser's game, unexpected consequences, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 slow on the draw cartoons about Democrats' response to Trump
Cartoons Artists take on taking a stand, staying still as a statue, and more
By The Week US Published
-
A road trip through Zimbabwe
The Week Recommends The country is 'friendly and relaxed', with plenty to see for those who wish to explore
By The Week UK Published
-
Trade wars, explained
The Explainer Free trade is almost always good for any economy – so why is it so unpopular?
By The Week UK Published
-
Trump's China tariffs start after Canada, Mexico pauses
Speed Read The president paused his tariffs on America's closest neighbors after speaking to their leaders, but his import tax on Chinese goods has taken effect
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Pros and cons of tariffs
Pros and Cons Mainstream economists are 'generally sceptical' levies on imports can protect domestic industries and promote prosperity
By The Week UK Published
-
Chinese AI chatbot's rise slams US tech stocks
Speed Read The sudden popularity of a new AI chatbot from Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent U.S. tech stocks tumbling
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US port strike averted with tentative labor deal
Speed Read The strike could have shut down major ports from Texas to Maine
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden expected to block Japanese bid for US Steel
Speed Read The president is blocking the $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel, citing national security concerns
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Why is China targeting Nvidia? (And why is the AI giant so important?)
Today's Big Question A new front in the 'chip war' with the US
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Judges block $25B Kroger-Albertsons merger
Speed Read The proposed merger between the supermarket giants was stalled when judges overseeing two separate cases blocked the deal
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published