Researchers are learning to predict your chances of surviving COVID-19


Not everybody who gets COVID-19 has symptoms, and not all symptomatic patients get equally sick. Hospitalization rates have stabilized in hard-hit areas like northern Italy and New York City, but if the next wave is even bigger and more destructive — one of three scenarios envisioned by University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm and his colleagues — that "would absolutely take the health system down," Osterholm told Stat News. Two studies released last week offer tools that might help hospitals better triage patients.
Researchers in China reported in the journal Nature Machine Learning that an analysis of blood samples taken from 485 coronavirus patients in Wuhan discovered there biomarkers that can predict whether a coronavirus patient will die within 10 days, with more than 90 percent accuracy, Business Insider reports. A computer model the researchers developed looks for high levels of the enzyme lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), linked to lung damage; lymphopenia, or low levels of infection-fighting white blood cells; and a rise in inflammation-signaling high-sensitivity C-reactive proteins (hs-CRP).
"In crowded hospitals, and with shortages of medical resources, this simple model can help to quickly prioritize patients, especially during a pandemic when limited healthcare resources have to be allocated," the researchers report.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A second paper published last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association found 10 biomarkers they said could predict a COVID-19 patient's risk levels. They turned risk predictors — high LDH levels and low levels of lymphocytes plus history of cancer, age, shortness of breath, and other factors — into a coronavirus risk "calculator."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
The best shows to see at Edinburgh Fringe 2025
The Week Recommends The world's biggest arts festival is back with an incredible line-up
-
Wonsan-Kalma: North Korea's new 'mammoth' beach resort
Under the Radar Pyongyang wants to boost tourism but there won't be many foreign visitors to Kim Jong Un's 'pet project'
-
The 5 best TV reboots of all time
The Week Recommends Finding an entirely new cast to play beloved characters is harder than it looks
-
Measles cases surge to 33-year high
Speed Read The infection was declared eliminated from the US in 2000 but has seen a resurgence amid vaccine hesitancy
-
Kennedy's vaccine panel signals skepticism, change
Speed Read RFK Jr.'s new vaccine advisory board intends to make changes to the decades-old US immunization system
-
Kennedy ousts entire CDC vaccine advisory panel
speed read Health Secretary RFK Jr. is a longtime anti-vaccine activist who has criticized the panel of experts
-
RFK Jr. scraps Covid shots for pregnant women, kids
Speed Read The Health Secretary announced a policy change without informing CDC officials
-
New FDA chiefs limit Covid-19 shots to elderly, sick
speed read The FDA set stricter approval standards for booster shots
-
US overdose deaths plunged 27% last year
speed read Drug overdose still 'remains the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-44,' said the CDC
-
Trump seeks to cut drug prices via executive order
speed read The president's order tells pharmaceutical companies to lower prescription drug prices, but it will likely be thrown out by the courts
-
RFK Jr. visits Texas as 2nd child dies from measles
Speed Read An outbreak of the vaccine-preventable disease continues to grow following a decade of no recorded US measles deaths