U.S. coronavirus death toll could rise to nearly 300,000 by December, model projects


A key model has projected that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States could reach almost 300,000 by December.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has forecasted that the U.S. coronavirus death toll will reach 295,011 by Dec. 1. That's up from the over 160,000 COVID-19 deaths that have been reported in the U.S., per Johns Hopkins University. But the model also finds that mask-wearing could prevent tens of thousands of these deaths.
Specifically, the researchers say that if 95 percent of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, the forecasted COVID-19 death toll could decrease by 66,000 to about 228,000. IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray stressed the need for Americans to continue measures like wearing masks, even in areas where COVID-19 cases are not spiking.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," Murray said. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others — which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."
Murray also explained to CNN that Americans have an "extraordinary opportunity" to save lives by wearing a mask.
"It's rare that you see something so simple, so inexpensive, so easy for everybody to participate in, can have such an extraordinary impact," he said.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.
-
Japan's surname conundrum
Under the Radar Law requiring couples to share one surname hinders women in the workplace and lowers birth rate, campaigners claim
-
How successful would Elon Musk's third party be?
Today's Big Question Musk has vowed to start a third party after falling out with Trump
-
Music reviews: Bruce Springsteen and Benson Boone
Feature "Tracks II: The Lost Albums" and "American Heart"
-
Kennedy's vaccine panel signals skepticism, change
Speed Read RFK Jr.'s new vaccine advisory board intends to make changes to the decades-old US immunization system
-
Kennedy ousts entire CDC vaccine advisory panel
speed read Health Secretary RFK Jr. is a longtime anti-vaccine activist who has criticized the panel of experts
-
RFK Jr. scraps Covid shots for pregnant women, kids
Speed Read The Health Secretary announced a policy change without informing CDC officials
-
New FDA chiefs limit Covid-19 shots to elderly, sick
speed read The FDA set stricter approval standards for booster shots
-
US overdose deaths plunged 27% last year
speed read Drug overdose still 'remains the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-44,' said the CDC
-
Trump seeks to cut drug prices via executive order
speed read The president's order tells pharmaceutical companies to lower prescription drug prices, but it will likely be thrown out by the courts
-
RFK Jr. visits Texas as 2nd child dies from measles
Speed Read An outbreak of the vaccine-preventable disease continues to grow following a decade of no recorded US measles deaths
-
Shingles vaccine cuts dementia risk, study finds
Speed Read Getting vaccinated appears to significantly reduce the chances of developing Alzheimer's and other forms of dementia