U.S. coronavirus death toll could rise to nearly 300,000 by December, model projects

A key model has projected that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States could reach almost 300,000 by December.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has forecasted that the U.S. coronavirus death toll will reach 295,011 by Dec. 1. That's up from the over 160,000 COVID-19 deaths that have been reported in the U.S., per Johns Hopkins University. But the model also finds that mask-wearing could prevent tens of thousands of these deaths.
Specifically, the researchers say that if 95 percent of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, the forecasted COVID-19 death toll could decrease by 66,000 to about 228,000. IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray stressed the need for Americans to continue measures like wearing masks, even in areas where COVID-19 cases are not spiking.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," Murray said. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others — which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."
Murray also explained to CNN that Americans have an "extraordinary opportunity" to save lives by wearing a mask.
"It's rare that you see something so simple, so inexpensive, so easy for everybody to participate in, can have such an extraordinary impact," he said.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.
-
The Week contest: Amazon Bond
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
6 grand homes in Boulder
Feature Featuring a mountain-facing balcony in Lower Chautauqua and a clover-shaped home in Flagstaff
By The Week US Published
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Texas outbreak brings 1st US measles death since 2015
Speed read The outbreak is concentrated in a 'close-knit, undervaccinated' Mennonite community in rural Gaines County
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Mystery illness spreading in Congo rapidly kills dozens
Speed Read The World Health Organization said 53 people have died in an outbreak that originated in a village where three children ate a bat carcass
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Ozempic can curb alcohol cravings, study finds
Speed read Weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may also be helpful in limiting alcohol consumption
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New form of H5N1 bird flu found in US dairy cows
Speed Read This new form of bird flu is different from the version that spread through herds in the last year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Microplastics accumulating in human brains, study finds
Speed Read The amount of tiny plastic particles found in human brains increased dramatically from 2016 to 2024
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
FDA approves painkiller said to thwart addiction
Speed Read Suzetrigine, being sold as Journavx, is the first new pharmaceutical pain treatment approved by the FDA in 20 years
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Study finds possible alternative abortion pill
Speed Read An emergency contraception (morning-after) pill called Ella could be an alternative to mifepristone for abortions
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
California declares bird flu emergency
Speed Read The emergency came hours after the nation's first person with severe bird flu infection was hospitalized
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published