New models suggest COVID-19 herd immunity might be achieved with far fewer people infected
COVID-19 researchers and modelers have assumed that at least 60 percent of a population, perhaps 70 percent, would need to be infected with the new coronavirus or vaccinated against it before reaching herd immunity, the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely among a community. Some infectious disease experts are now examining the "hopeful possibility" that far fewer people have to get infected or immunized to achieve herd immunity, The New York Times reports, citing interviews with more than a dozen scientists.
If their new, complicated statistical models are correct, and communities can reach herd immunity with 50 percent or less of people gaining immunity to COVID-19, "it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought," the Times reports. A clear minority of researchers predict as few as 10 or 20 percent of a population developing antibodies to the disease would be sufficient for herd immunity; Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton calculated the threshold at 43 percent.
It's not clear any city or pocket of a city has sufficient immune people to thwart a second wave of COVID-19, but there may be parts of Mumbai, London, and New York that are close or have developed at least significant collective resistance. In hard-hit New York City, for example, fewer than 1 percent of people being tested in some neighborhood clinics over the past eight weeks have tested positive, the Times notes. Even a lower threshold "means many residents of the community will have been sickened or have died, a high price to pay for herd immunity."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
And right now, the models are untested. "Mathematically, it's certainly possible to have herd immunity at these very, very low levels," Carl Bergstrom, an infectious disease expert at the University of Washington, tells the Times. "Those are just our best guesses for what the numbers should look like," but "they're just exactly that, guesses."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
The best new music of 2024 by genre
The Week Recommends Outstanding albums, from pop to electro and classical
By The Week UK Published
-
Nine best TV shows of 2024 to binge this Christmas
The Week Recommends From Baby Reindeer and Slow Horses to Rivals and Shogun, here are the critics' favourites
By The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: December 28, 2024
The Week's daily crossword puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
California declares bird flu emergency
Speed Read The emergency came hours after the nation's first person with severe bird flu infection was hospitalized
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Bird flu one mutuation from human threat, study finds
Speed Read A Scripps Research Institute study found one genetic tweak of the virus could enable its spread among people
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Dark chocolate tied to lower diabetes risk
Speed Read The findings were based on the diets of about 192,000 US adults over 34 years
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
ACA opens 2025 enrollment, enters 2024 race
Speed Read Mike Johnson promises big changes to the Affordable Care Act if Trump wins the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
McDonald's sued over E. coli linked to burger
Speed Read The outbreak has sickened at least 49 people in 10 states and left one dead
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Texas dairy worker gets bird flu from infected cow
Speed Read The virus has been spreading among cattle in Texas, Kansas, Michigan and New Mexico
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Dengue hits the Americas hard and early
Speed Read Puerto Rico has declared an epidemic as dengue cases surge
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US bans final type of asbestos
Speed Read Exposure to asbestos causes about 40,000 deaths in the U.S. each year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published