The GOP's looming legitimacy crisis
If Republicans take the White House in 2024, will anyone believe they did so fair and square?


A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Thank you for signing up to TheWeek. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.
If Donald Trump wins back the presidency in 2024, will anybody but his most-devoted followers believe he did so fair and square?
As has been well-documented, Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country have spent recent months passing bills ostensibly designed to enhance "election integrity," but widely seen as simply trying to make it more difficult for Democratic constituencies to get to the polls. It doesn't appear that Dems can or will block these actions — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Sunday said he would vote against his party's For the People Act, dealing a blow to progressive hopes the federal government might override the GOP's maneuvers. On top of these debates, there is growing concern that conservative legislators might simply choose to award their states' electoral votes to their party's presidential candidate in 2024, no matter what voters actually decide. Who would be able to stop them? Republicans might well be able to win power using such techniques. But they might also be able to win without them.
But in so openly working to tilt the playing field in their favor, Republicans may already be convincing American voters the party can't win the White House without a little funny business. In that case, the party will have created a crisis of legitimacy for itself when it next takes power. That would be a massive self-own — darkly amusing, if the possible consequences weren't so serious.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Legitimacy matters. All governments depend on some mix of coercion (laws, prisons, taxes, police) and public acceptance of a regime's right to rule. When you have more of the latter, you often need less of the former. And when government's legitimacy falters, unrest can often follow — witness last summer's Black Lives Matter protests after the police murder of George Floyd. The balance is a living thing, always in flux.
In a democracy, nothing undermines legitimacy faster than the public's sense that its leaders didn't follow the rules while acquiring power. Indeed, Trump has already created both an outright insurrection and an ongoing crisis for President Biden by convincing so many of his followers — falsely, egregiously — that Democrats stole the 2020 presidential election. The shocking revelation of the Trump Era is that it takes only one particularly bold liar to threaten the underpinnings of a government that couldn't even be undone by the horrors of the Civil War.
It doesn't have to be this way. Playing under 2020's ground rules, Trump came within a whisker's hair of winning an Electoral College victory again — and probably would have if the COVID-19 pandemic had not dramatically altered the course of the campaign. Republicans outperformed expectations in House and Senate elections, and a new Democratic post-mortem suggests that minority voters may be increasingly inclined to align with the GOP. There are plenty of reasons to believe conservatives can still win national elections without suppressing the opposition's votes.
So why don't they try to win fair and square?
Probably for the same reason that the Houston Astros, who were loaded with baseball talent, rigged the game in favor of their hitters: It's just an easier way to win, and it's better to win than to lose. Maybe Republicans have watched their candidates win the presidency twice this century without winning even a plurality of the popular vote, and noticed that Americans didn't actually mount a full-blown rebellion. And maybe they aren't all that concerned about creating legitimacy problems for themselves, believing that some combination of Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN will manufacture just enough consent to make the whole thing work. Who really knows?
Trump is the catalyst for the GOP's recent attempts to shape the electorate to its liking — but even if he doesn't or can't run in 2024, the Republican who replaces him as the nominee will be the beneficiary of the rules changes. If the GOP wins the White House, that person will almost certainly be the focus of widespread skepticism about the fairness of their victory. He or she might well find that skepticism makes it much more difficult to govern.
If so, the resulting challenges will be richly deserved. Republicans, by their actions during the months since Jan. 6, have demonstrated that they don't really believe they can win a fairly contested national election. They shouldn't be surprised if and when Americans believe them.
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter
A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Joel Mathis is a freelance writer who lives in Lawrence, Kansas with his wife and son. He spent nine years as a syndicated columnist, co-writing the RedBlueAmerica column as the liberal half of a point-counterpoint duo. His honors include awards for best online commentary from the Online News Association and (twice) from the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Is it time the world re-evaluated the rules on migration?
Today's Big Question Home Secretary Suella Braverman questions whether 1951 UN Refugee Convention is 'fit for our modern age'
By The Week Staff Published
-
A Ukraine election in 2024: how it would work
The Explainer Zelenskyy hints that country is ready for March polls but logistical, security and democratic obstacles remain
By Harriet Marsden Published
-
How Ukraine's claimed kill of Russia's top Black Sea Fleet admiral could affect the war
Speed Read Ukraine says it killed Russian Adm. Viktor Sokolov and 33 other senior commanders in an audacious and expertly timed strike in Crimea
By Peter Weber Published
-
Azerbaijan attacks disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, breaking cease-fire
The 'local anti-terrorist' strikes in the ethnic Armenian enclave threaten to reignite a war with implications for Russia, Turkey and the West
By Peter Weber Published
-
Canada's Trudeau accuses India of role in assassination of Canadian Sikh leader
Canada expelled a senior Indian diplomat after going public with explosive 'credible allegations' that Indian agents helped kill a Canadian citizen
By Peter Weber Published
-
US-Iran prisoner swap: has Biden given in to blackmail?
Republicans condemn $6bn deal but it could help de-escalate rising tensions
By The Week Staff Published
-
Russia and Ukraine face off in The Hague over genocide case
Kyiv is hoping court will rule Russia's actions illegal but Moscow wants the case dismissed
By Rebekah Evans Published
-
Indigenous Voice referendum: is this Australia's 'Brexit moment'?
The referendum on Indigenous rights may be a moment of reckoning for the 'open wounds of nationhood'
By Rebekah Evans Published