Why Donald Trump should pick Paul Ryan for VP

Republicans in Washington are waiting with bated breath for presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan to meet on Thursday, presumably with the goal of unifying the party after a bruising primary that resulted in an embarrassing defeat for the Republican establishment. But it would be surprising if Trump didn't also have another goal in mind: the veepstakes.

Trump says he has five or six people in mind for his running mate, and won't rule out New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But come on: He's not going to pick an increasingly clownish sycophant. And while I have no doubt that Trump has a number of people in mind, let's be honest: Ryan ought to be the obvious frontrunner. The other names might just be insurance policies in case Ryan says no — which he might well do.

First, let's look at the qualifications Trump says he is using to judge a running mate. He seems to have two: an effective, seasoned politician who's well-connected in Washington, and someone who is not from the world of business. He described his ideal VP to Morning Joe last week as "somebody that can help me with legislation and somebody that can help me get things passed and somebody that's been friends with the senators and congressmen and all so we don’t have to go the executive order route as much as Obama did."

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In April, he told The Washington Post's Bob Woodward and Robert Costa that he would pick "a political person. In other words, I don't need to have another great businessman come in." He wants "somebody that can walk into the Senate and who's been friendly with these guys for 25 years, and people for 25 years. And can get things done," he said. "So I would 95 percent see myself picking a political person as opposed to somebody from the outside." Trump reiterated those criteria to The Associated Press on Tuesday.

Trump wouldn't boost his favorability ratings by picking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (whose home state, Kentucky, isn't of the swing variety). He could maybe fit Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) into that mold, or Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah) if he wants to improve his dismal standing among Mormons. Trump mentions Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.) regularly, though he's not exactly the glad-handing legislative machine Trump seems to be seeking.

But you know who is? Paul Ryan.

Ryan also brings another tangible asset: Conservatives like and trust him. Movement conservatives don't trust Trump. Ryan would bring Trump enormous credibility with the base.

Ryan is a policy nerd and a lawmaker. He's an insider who would destroy any residual GOP establishment rebellion. He was vetted and found clean by Mitt Romney in 2012. He's such a good fit, in fact, that you might be thinking he's too perfect for a maverick like Trump. Trump is unconventional, and he might want to throw everyone for a loop with an outside-the-box candidate, like John McCain's Hail Sarah when he was losing to Barack Obama just months before the 2008 election. But that's not the kind of candidate Trump is describing, and besides, Trump is his own Sarah Palin — if he wants to shake things up, he just opens his mouth and the media transcribes.

It also can't be lost on anyone that Trump would be 70 when sworn in, the oldest president to take his first oath of office. Yes, Trump may have "astonishingly excellent" health and could be "the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency," as Trump's personal doctor attests, but your odds of suffering a debilitating health problem are much higher at 70 (or 74, or 78) than at Ryan's age of 46. A young VP would be a major asset for Trump.

So what's the problem? Well, Ryan himself. He certainly hasn't been shy about criticizing Trump's lack of conservative bona fides. And really, what's in it for him? He's already the highest-ranking Republican in the country, third in line for the presidency. Would taking a step up to second-in-line really be a promotion, especially since a vice president has zero inherent authority and the speaker of the House wields enormous power? Besides, Ryan and Trump don't see eye-to-eye on several key areas of policy. And then, maybe there's the stigma of always being a presidential bridesmaid, never a bride — especially if the bride never quite consummates the marriage.

But potentially, it's a win-win for Ryan. He doesn't have to step down as House speaker to run for vice president, and if Trump loses, well, look what happened the last time Ryan ran for vice president and lost — he became speaker of the House. In fact, the slight probability that Trump will lose is probably the biggest reason Ryan might say yes. Republicans don't seem to be putting much stock in Trump's chances against Hillary Clinton, at least not yet, and if Ryan has his eyes on the 2020 nomination, being the VP candidate is traditionally a good way to become a frontrunner next time around.

As it turns out, Ryan was smart to sit this election out — he would almost certainly have been just one more rising Republican star run through the Trump buzz saw. But Trump-skeptical Republicans must be licking their chops about the prospect of facing an unpopular President Clinton in four years, hoping to do to her what Bill Clinton did to George H.W. Bush in 1992. And remember, in 2020, Ryan will be 50, and Clinton will be 72.

Donald Trump promises to unveil his running mate in grand, showman-like fashion at the Republican convention that Paul Ryan will, incidentally, chair. Sorry if I'm ruining the surprise.