While conventional wisdom suggests income level is the greatest determining factor in white voters' support for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump (she the elite insider, he the voice of the beleaguered working class — or rich Republicans facing off against poor Democrats) a new analysis from FiveThirtyEight suggests religion and education level are both far more important.
"Roughly speaking," the report summarizes, "a white voter will lean left if she is 'more college than church' and will lean right if she is 'more church than college.'" For those who fall in the middle of each spectrum, the third most predictive factor — whether a person lives in a more urban or rural area — settled the matter, with rural voters preferring Trump and urbanites going with Clinton.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
4 ways to give back this holiday seasonThe Explainer If your budget is feeling squeezed, remember that money is not the only way you can be generous around the holidays
-
4 tips for hosting an ecofriendly ThanksgivingThe Week Recommends Coming together for the holidays typically produces a ton of waste, but with proper preparation, you can have an environmentally friendly gathering.
-
Jussie Smollet conviction overturned on appealSpeed Read The Illinois Supreme Court overturned the actor's conviction on charges of staging a racist and homophobic attack against himself in 2019
-
Pope seeks inquiry on if Gaza assault is 'genocide'Speed Read In a book for the Jubilee 2025, Pope Francis considers whether Israel's war in Gaza meets the legal definition of 'genocide'
-
Church of England head resigns over abuse scandalSpeed Read Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby faced backlash over his handling of a notorious child abuser
-
Catholic synod ends with no resolution on womenSpeed Read At a major Vatican meeting, Pope Francis did not address ordaining women as deacons
-
The Vatican's stand on gender-affirming careSpeed Read A new published document condemns gender transition, calling it a threat to human dignity
-
The United Methodist Church has lost 20% of U.S. congregations in schism over LGBTQ rulesSpeed Read
-
Pope Francis investigates Texas bishop, accepts early resignation of embattled Tennessee prelateSpeed Read
-
Southern Baptists expel Saddleback, 2nd church over female pastors, approve further clampdownSpeed Read
-
Thousands flock to Missouri to see body of nun who died in 2019Speed Read
