Megyn Kelly asks Karl Rove, Larry Sabato about that one poll showing Donald Trump ahead

Megyn Kelly had Republican strategist Karl Rove and University of Virginia poll prognosticator Larry Sabato on Tuesday's Kelly File to assess the state of the presidential race. She began by asking Rove where Donald Trump should go in the campaign's final week. "He's got seven days and he's got to cover seven states, which is a very large number of states to be focused on as you come down to the end," Rove said, explaining that in the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is up in Iowa, Florida, and Ohio and down in North Carolina — he needs to win all those plus at least two from a list of seven swing states.

"What are the odds of that right now?" Kelly asked. "What kind of battle is that, would you say, Karl?" "That's uphill," Rove said. "He's still coming from behind, and he's got to not be diverted." Trump should pick the states his polling tells him he can win — which might be easier if he hadn't stiffed his pollster for $766,756, according to FEC records. Kelly turned to Sabato to ask him about the national polls, noting that the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll has Trump up by 1 point over Hillary Clinton. Sabato was skeptical.

"As far as the Washington Post/ABC poll — I'd be interested to hear what Karl thinks — but any poll that shifts... 13 points, in a week and a half, that's a questionable poll," Sabato said. The polls are tightening, largely "because partisans have been coming home to Trump, and that was happening even before Director Comey did what he did last Friday, but believe me, his actions have sped that up."

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In the RCP average of polls four years ago, Mitt Romney was up 0.8 points and Obama won by 4 points, Sabato said. "So while I use polling averages, I also admit that they can be off, too. Nothing's perfect." "I know Team Trump feels heartened by this poll" and others that show him with momentum, Kelly said, asking Rove for his opinion. "I agree with Dr. Sabato," Rove said. "I'm a little bit dubious about a poll that goes 13 points in 10 days, I want to see a little bit more.... I do think the race has been closing, it closed before last Friday, I think we will see on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday of this week how much it has closed." Watch below. Peter Weber