General election 2019: MPs at risk of losing their seats
Some big-name politicians have good reason to feel nervous as the UK heads to polls
Voters are heading to the ballot box today to either back or help oust their local MP.
The first December election since 1923 has seen the major parties putting Brexit and the future of public services at the centre of their campaigns. The Conservatives are focusing on their “get Brexit done” message, while Labour has warned voters that the Tories pose a major risk to the NHS.
And in one of the most unpredictable elections in years, some sitting MPs will be worried that their seats are also under threat. Here are the politicians most likely to disappear from Parliament.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Esher and Walton: Dominic Raab - Conservative (won by 23,298)
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is one of the most senior MPs whose seat is threatened in 2019. The prominent Brexiteer campaigned for Leave during the referendum campaign and has been an unwavering pro-Brexit voice in Johnson’s government.
But that may cost Raab in his Remain-backing constituency of Esher and Walton, with the latest YouGov poll giving him a less than a two-point advantage over the Liberal Democrats’ Monica Harding.
Chingford and Wood Green: Ian Duncan Smith - Conservative (won by 2,438)
Former Conservative leader Duncan Smith is another committed Brexiteer, and backed Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. But his constituency voted - albeit narrowly - to stay in the EU, with Remain backed by 50.12%.
Green candidate John Tyne announced last month he was “tactically withdrawing” from battle to secure the Chingford and Wood Green seat, in order to help Labour take the seat from the Tories. Labour’s Faiza Shaheen is now fewer than two points behind Duncan Smith.
Chipping Barnet: Theresa Villiers - Conservative (won by 353 votes)
Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers only just held on to her north London seat in 2017. She was a prominent Leaver during the referendum campaign, while Barnet voted 62.2% to remain. Villiers is up against Labour’s Emma Whysall, who ran her close last time and describes herself as an “unrepentant Remainer”.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Stephen Crabb - Conservative (won by 314 votes)
A former cabinet minister and government whip, Stephen Crabb backed Remain during the referendum, while his Welsh constituency voted to leave by a margin of 57.1%. He has since said that he backs the Brexit vote, but like Villiers is running against a Labour candidate, Philippa Thompson, who pushed him close in 2017.
Kensington: Emma Dent Coad - Labour (won by 20 votes)
Remain-supporting Emma Dent Coad became Kensington’s first ever Labour MP when she won the seat in 2017. The constituency voted 68.7% in favour of EU membership, but in December she will test her popularity in a three-way contest against Conservative candidate Felicity Buchan and former Conservative leadership candidate Sam Gyimah, who defected to the Liberal Democrats in September and who has chosen to stand in Kensington rather than his current seat, East Surrey.
Canterbury: Rosie Duffield - Labour (won by 187 votes)
Canterbury had elected Conservative politicians in every election during the 1900s, so Rosie Duffield’s win by a margin of 187 votes in the 2017 general election was another huge success for Labour. Duffield is a Remainer, putting her out of step with her constituents, who voted 51% in favour of Leave, and is going up against a vocal Brexiteer in Conservative candidate Anna Firth.
Hastings & Rye: Amber Rudd (won by 346 votes and is stepping down)
Former work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd this morning announced that she would not be standing in December. She won Hastings & Rye by just 346 votes in 2017. The race between Labour’s Peter Chowney, who ran against Rudd, and the Conservative candidate could be close. The constituency voted to leave the EU by a margin of 54.9%-45.1%.
Other seats at risk
Fife North East (voted 58.6% to remain in 2016): Stephen Gethins - SNP (won by 2 votes)
Perth & North Perthshire (61.1% Remain): Pete Wishart - SNP (won by 21 votes)
Southampton Itchen (53.8% Leave): Royston Smith - Conservative (won by 31 votes)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (63% Leave): Paul Farrelly - Labour (won by 30 votes and is stepping down in 2019)
Richmond Park (69.3% Remain): Zac Goldsmith - Conservative (won by 45 votes)
Crewe & Nantwich (51.2% Leave): Laura Smith - Labour (won by 48 votes)
Glasgow South West (66.6% Remain): Chris Stephens - SNP (won by 60 votes)
Glasgow East (56.2% Remain): David Linden - SNP (won by 75 votes)
Stirling (67.7% Remain): Stephen Kerr - Conservative (won by 148 votes)
Pudsey (51.4% Remain): Stuart Andrew - Conservative (won by 331 votes)
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Italy's prisons crisis
Under the Radar Severe overcrowding, dire conditions and appalling violence have brought the Italian carceral system to boiling point
By Rebecca Messina, The Week UK Published
-
The potential effects of Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah
THE EXPLAINER With the possibility of a region-wide war fading, the Palestinian militant group Hamas faces increased isolation and limited options
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: December 9, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Labour's plan for change: is Keir Starmer pulling a Rishi Sunak?
Today's Big Question New 'Plan for Change' calls to mind former PM's much maligned 'five priorities'
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
John Prescott: was he Labour's last link to the working class?
Today's Big Quesiton 'A total one-off': tributes have poured in for the former deputy PM and trade unionist
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Last hopes for justice for UK's nuclear test veterans
Under the Radar Thousands of ex-service personnel say their lives have been blighted by aggressive cancers and genetic mutations
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Donald Trump wreck the Brexit deal?
Today's Big Question President-elect's victory could help UK's reset with the EU, but a free-trade agreement with the US to dodge his threatened tariffs could hinder it
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Labour risking the 'special relationship'?
Today's Big Question Keir Starmer forced to deny Donald Trump's formal complaint that Labour staffers are 'interfering' to help Harris campaign
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why are Democrats suddenly focused on Donald Trump's mental acuity?
Today's Big Question As Election Day looms, Kamala Harris and her allies are mounting a late-stage attack on the former president's mental health — but why now? And will it matter to voters?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published