Coronavirus: why does London appear to be riding the second Covid wave?

Despite warnings from public health experts that London was likely to bear the brunt of a second wave of coronavirus, the capital is faring better than expected.

Data released this week by the Office for National Statistics showed 952 deaths registered in London in the week ending 6 November, which The Times notes is the “same number as would be predicted based on the average for the past five years”.

Health chiefs are even hoping this weekend could signal the “first decline in Covid cases in London since the start of the second lockdown”, the London Evening Standard says.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Supressing the spike

In the week ending 6 November, London was the only one of the nine regions of England used for official statistics not to register any excess deaths. And “by contrast, the 1,900 deaths registered in the north west were 496 higher than average, a difference of 35%”, The Times reports.

The current London rate of almost 200 cases per 100,000 people compares with a rate of 145.2 on 1 November, a relatively shallow rise. As a result of this relative containment of the virus, London has kept winter coronavirus hospitalisations lower than the rest of Britain.

Hospitalisations in London are currently at less than 150 per 100,000 people, compared to around 400 per 100,000 in the north west and Yorkshire and the Humber.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan yesterday said “now more than ever it’s vital that we continue to follow the rules because we still have some very difficult months ahead in our fight against the virus”. He added: “I’m pleased to say that the end is finally coming into sight.”

Quieter summer

There are a number of theories behind London’s better-than-expected performance in handling a second wave.

Londoners “moved and mixed less during crucial summer months”, The Telegraph reports, adding that during July, August and early September, “London’s bars, restaurants, non-essential shops and offices remained much quieter than those in other parts of the country compared to pre-pandemic times”.

Visits to pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops during the summer months “remained between 50% and 30% below normal levels in London”, analysis by the paper found, while in other areas around the UK “the same metric moved from 40% to just 10%” between July and September.

The Times, meanwhile, suggests that the capital may now have “some level of herd immunity” after a study in September showed 9.4% of Londoners testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies.

The next highest region, the north east, clocked in at 6.5%, while the city’s young population “may also mean a higher level of asymptomatic cases that are not being picked up by national testing systems”, the paper adds.