Could Wales follow Scotland in demanding independence?

Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second Scottish independence vote has given fresh ammunition to separatist movements in Wales who are now demanding their own freedom from Westminster rule.

Leanne Wood, leader of the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and head of opposition in the Welsh Assembly, said a vote for independence in Scotland would spell the "end of the UK as a state".

"In that situation, Wales would need to decide its own future," she said in a statement.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

"A national debate to explore all of the options, including that of independent Wales, must take place in Wales when that scenario becomes a realistic one."

Is there a case for Welsh independence?

In Scotland, which overwhelmingly voted against Brexit in the June 2016 referendum, the Scottish National Party argues that independence is the only way to avoid following the UK out of the EU.

However Welsh voters actually voted to leave the EU at a higher percentage than those in England, so Plaid Cymru cannot accuse Westminster of defying the will of the Welsh people.

Nonetheless, Leanne Wood says that now is a "good time" for Wales to consider its own "national interests" and its response to any "new constitutional scenario".

The Plaid Cymru leader said that Westminster must not mistake Wales's Brexit vote for permission to proceed without consultation, warning that if the Welsh national interest was overlooked, "support will grow for greater control of our own affairs".

Is there popular support for independence in Wales?

Not really. In polls taken in recent years, the percentage of Welsh people keen on independence has hovered below 10 per cent, compared to the 45 per cent of Scots who voted to break away from the UK in 2014.

The separatist movement in Wales faces similar challenges to those that defeated the SNP in 2014, namely convincing voters of the economic viability of independence and the future security of their pensions and welfare benefits.

The bad news for Plaid Cymru is that far from fuelling nationalist sentiments the 2014 Scottish independence referendum actually reduced Welsh voters' enthusiasm for separatism.

A poll conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish vote put support for an independent Wales at a less than encouraging three per cent, says The Guardian.

However, if Scotland goes through with independence in 2018 or 2019, the constitutional ramifications of their departure could jolt the Welsh independence movement to life.

A cut-down United Kingdom would significantly change Wales's status within the union – and not for the better, says Martin Shipton in Wales Online.

"With Scotland gone, England would be in an even more dominant role in the UK than it is at present," he writes, leaving Wales as a "very junior partner" in an unbalanced union.