Disaffected MPs from both major parties could finally be set to take the plunge and form new breakaway groupings as Brexit reaches its endgame.
It means “there will be a bunch of MPs and journalists skulking around Westminster in a belligerent mood wondering why on earth the prime minister has forced us all to pretend that anything of consequence is going on,” says Stephen Bush in the New Statesman.
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“As a result, the dominant story will likely be one of splits: MPs in both parties are widely known to be eyeing the exit door, and without much of consequence to talk about, the press will be talking about splits and schisms,” he writes.
ITV political correspondent Paul Brand says “splits have long been anticipated, but on the Labour side, we may not have long to wait”.
Many see 27 February as the point of maximum danger for both main party leaders. MPs will once again get the chance to table amendments to the prime minister’s Brexit deal, with a handful of Labour parliamentarians planning to quit the party unless Jeremy Corbyn back a second referendum.
Among those said to be heading for the door are former shadow chancellor Chris Leslie, former business minister and People’s Vote champion Chuka Umunna, the parliamentary chairwoman of Jewish Labour Luciana Berger, and former minister Angela Smith.
Under one plan reported by the Financial Times, “at least one MP would step down to prompt a by-election. Winning back his or her seat under the banner of a new party would prove the group could 'win elections', a backbencher said. At that point, the breakaway faction would try to persuade other MPs to leave Labour and join them.”
Brand says “the bigger question is how many more MPs they can peel away by tapping in to three main sources of disillusionment in Labour: Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and political beliefs; the Labour Party's troubles with antisemitism; Brexit.”
As ever, parallels will be made with the decision by four senior Labour MPs in 1981 to split from the party and set up the Social Democrats (SDP). Perhaps fittingly, the issue was, as it is today, about the Labour leadership’s approach to Europe,
However, after initial electoral success the SDP failed to make a breakthrough at the 1983 general election, and ended up splitting the liberal vote and ushering in 15 years of Tory rule.
On the Conservative side, there are fears the prime minister’s negotiating strategy could cause a far greater schism.
From the Remain wing of the party, Downing Street fears Tories such as Anna Soubry and Heidi Allen could join with moderate Labour exiles, which along with the addition of Lib Dem politicians, “would be seen by many as the core of a new centrist party” says the Daily Mail.
But the far greater threat to the long-term future of the Tory party appears to be from hardline Brexiteers.
The Daily Mirror has reported that more than 100,000 people have already signed up to Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party in less than a week. This is just below the total number of Conservative Party members; stoking fears of a mass voter exodus at any future election if Brexit is not delivered on.
On the weekend, The Guardian reported that a Tory donor had registered another new party ready to champion a hard Brexit in a snap election.
Jeremy Hosking, the multimillionaire financier who backed a series of pro-Brexit Tory candidates at the last election, said his new party, Brexit Express, would welcome Tory MPs wanting to protest should the prime minister “botch Brexit”.
“Can these unhappy spouses co-exist in the same political party? The best form of defence is attack,” he said. “We don’t necessarily want the Tory party to split, but it seems to me that there is a good case for it.”
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