Who will be the next pope?

When will there be a new pope?

Popes are appointed for life. Pope John Paul, who turns 82 this month, is increasingly frail, and during Holy Week celebrations he stepped aside to let others lead many of the traditional observances. The Holy Father’s health has been a concern on and off since 1981, when he survived an assassination attempt. He shows signs of suffering from Parkinson’s disease, a degenerative illness, and his body has been slowed by arthritis. His declining health has forced Vatican insiders to begin quietly debating the direction the church should take after his death.

Could the pope resign for health reasons?

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There is nothing in church law to prevent him from stepping down. Several popes have done so, although the last pontiff to resign was Celestine V in 1294. Pope John Paul has said he has no plans to resign. But members of the curia—the Vatican civil service—have passed on to journalists a rumor that the pope has signed a secret resignation letter, to be unsealed if he becomes senile or otherwise incapacitated, according to author Peter Hebblethwaite’s book The Next Pope.

How are popes chosen?

They are elected by the church’s cardinals, the highest ranking members of the world’s Roman Catholic clergy. The dean of the Sacred College of Cardinals calls a meeting within 20 days of the pope’s death. Only those under the age of 80 may vote. If no one wins two-thirds of the votes, the ballots are burned with a chemical that turns the smoke black. The sight of the smoke tells all outside that no decision has been reached. Once two-thirds of the cardinals agree on a choice, the final ballots are burned alone, and the white smoke that emerges lets everyone know that a new pope has been chosen.

Will the cardinals pick a reformer?

If they do, it will be a surprise. Pope John Paul has appointed 118 of the 126 cardinals who would be eligible to vote, and most share his traditional views on contraception, priestly celibacy, and the ordination of women. “He has looked for people who agree with him on the most important issues,” said Rev. Thomas Reese, author of the book Inside the Vatican. The current scandal, some of the most conservative cardinals believe, is the product of the liberalizations inspired by the Second Vatican Council in the 1960s. As the largest voting bloc, this group of about 40 cardinals may seek to choose a pope who will emphasize, not eliminate, the church’s traditional teachings.

Who are the favorites?

Under the rules of the church, any Catholic male could be elected pope. Realistically, only a handful of cardinals with impeccable records—from the parish altar to the halls of the Vatican—are considered to be papabile, “pope-able.” In the past, 78 percent of the 264 successors of St. Peter have been Italians. But Vaticanologists speculate that the next pope might be from the Third World, where the Catholic flock is enjoying rapid growth. One of the pope’s top lieutenants, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, is expected to throw his weight behind Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, who would become the first black pope. Latin American papabili, according to Polish journalist and longtime Vatican observer Jacek Palasinski, include Vatican insider Cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos of Colombia, Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, and Cardinal Oscar Maradiaga Rodríguez of Honduras.

Where are the electors from?

Once dominated by Italians, the College of Cardinals is now loosely representative of the world population of Catholics. Italians now constitute just 18 percent of the electors. Nineteen percent are from other countries in Western Europe, 11 percent from Eastern Europe, and nearly 10 percent come from North America. Another 10 percent are African, and 20 percent, the largest regional delegation outside of Europe, are Latin American.

Is the age of Italian popes over?

Not necessarily. If a Third World cardinal is not chosen, the conservative choice might be an Italian. The current pope, Karol Wojtyla, was the cardinal of Krakow, Poland, when selected—the first non-Italian pontiff in 455 years. His 23-year pontificate is the sixth longest ever. After such a lengthy reign, the cardinals have historically chosen a candidate in his 70s to act as an interim leader, to allow time for a dispassionate assessment of the state of the church. That often leads to the selection of a “safe choice,” according to National Catholic Reporter publisher Tom Fox and Vatican correspondent John L. Allen Jr., author of the forthcoming book Conclave: The Politics, Personalities and Process of the Next Papal Election. The safest choice at this turbulent time, they say, could be an Italian pontiff. Whoever is chosen to lead the embattled institution, it’s clear that one group of cardinals is definitely not papabile-the 13 cardinals of the United States.

The most secret of ballots

When a pope dies, the world’s cardinals gather to select a new pontiff. The electors arrive for the electoral session and disappear behind the shuttered doors of the Sistine Chapel until they reach a decision. The meeting is called a conclave, and they remain locked up con clave, with key, until two-thirds of the electors have selected a new pope. During the next conclave, the cardinals will be housed together and whisked across St. Peter’s Square under tight supervision to their meeting place every morning. Before the sessions, according to Hebblethwaite’s The Next Pope, two trusted technicians will sweep the chapel for electronic bugging devices. The cardinals will have no access to telephones, fax machines, newspapers, or TV and radio broadcasts. When the vote begins, each cardinal will step forward, one at a time, and take a blank ballot. The elector will write his selection on the ballot. To keep the choice secret, the cardinals will be advised to disguise their handwriting. After each vote, the ballots will be burned, and the color of smoke will be the only indication to outsiders of the status of the conclave. When the telltale puffs of white smoke finally appear, the oldest cardinal will step onto a balcony overlooking St. Peter’s Square and announce, “Habemus papam”: We have a pope.