Can Hong Kong break free of China?
It certainly won't be easy. But there are real signs of change.


Hong Kong is a historical accident. China had to give up what was then a mostly empty island to Britain after losing the First Opium War in 1842. The tiny island grew to become one of the world's most thriving metropolises as the U.K. established a benevolently deregulated economy that enabled exiles from Communist China to build one of the world's most bustling business centers. Hong Kong became an economic powerhouse; today it has a population of more than 7 million and the world's 10th highest GDP per capita (on a purchasing power parity basis). But it has also been a cultural beacon, hosting thriving religious organizations that couldn't prosper in China, and producing an iconic and influential movie industry.
When the U.K. handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997, pursuant to the original lease from the 19th century, China promised to respect Hong Kong's historical liberties under the "One Country, Two Systems" concept. The idea was that Hong Kong would become a part of China, but have its own constitution and its own political system, including civil liberties.
Anyone who trusted that promise was smoking something.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
And indeed, China has recently been cracking down. In 2014, a decision by the Chinese Communist Party to start vetting candidates for elections prompted the "umbrella movement," a series of sit-ins and protests that froze the city for months. More recently, Chinese dissidents living in Hong Kong, who used to be able to rely on safety, have been running into "accidents" — or disappearing. Most famously, Lam Wing-kee, a seller of books critical of China, disappeared, and was only allowed to return to Hong Kong after months of detention and alleged torture.
The latest crackdown from the Chinese government has caused a severe backlash from the umbrella movement. And it's causing a major shift. Hong Kong reformers have always agitated only for maintaining Hong Kong's liberties within China. Now, a growing number of voices are advocating what should have been the goal all along: Hong Kong independence.
The South China Morning Post frets that teachers in Hong Kong might advocate independence to their students, and the government says that teachers who advocate independence will be sacked, a sure sign of fear. The Chinese government is also warning that candidates for the Legislative Council, Hong Kong's semi-elected parliament, who support independence will face "follow-up action".
This is a really big deal. Barely a year or two ago, the Hong Kong independence movement was a joke. Literally. People made a joke flag and a joke website for the Hong Kong independence movement.
Now the independence movement is real. It's fielding candidates for office, and has a secret membership list. Today, people are marching with Hong Kong's colonial-era flag, and the "dragon and lion flag," which displays Hong Kong's colonial-era arms, symbols for a return to independence.
The movement is still fringe, and there hasn't been serious polling on it. But the demographics of the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement are changing. Younger citizens feel that the traditional pro-democracy parties have accomplished nothing, and younger activists don't want to work through the process anymore. They want to protest, sit-in, perform street action, and get arrested. A recent poll found the number of Hong Kong residents who say they "feel Chinese" has dropped to a record low.
The pro-independence movement has a very difficult road ahead of it. To say China is irredentist is to put it mildly. It still hasn't gotten over Taiwan's independence decades ago, still claims Taiwan as a part of China, and breaks off diplomatic relationships with any country that recognizes Taiwan. Hong Kong cannot win independence militarily, and for it to win independence through peaceful means would mean a willingness on the part of China to refuse a crackdown for political or PR reasons that it has never, ever shown. Xi Jinping's government, far from embracing a putative trend toward a political opening in China following the economic opening, has concentrated power and embraced authoritarianism to an extent unseen since at least Tian An Men. A Chinese prosecutor's office darkly warned that Hong Kong independence would turn the peninsula "into Syria".
And yet... China is an unstable country. And in a world of Brexit and Trump for president, anything is possible. Black swans can and do happen.
More broadly, the Hong Kong independence movement shows that this beautiful city has spine and spunk. It is right. City-states are the future. And Hong Kong is more Hong Kong than China at this point. It has its own history, its own culture, its own people, its own problems. Long live Hong Kong independence.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry is a writer and fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. His writing has appeared at Forbes, The Atlantic, First Things, Commentary Magazine, The Daily Beast, The Federalist, Quartz, and other places. He lives in Paris with his beloved wife and daughter.
-
The rise and rise of VTubers
Under The Radar This anime-inspired internet subculture is going global
By Abby Wilson
-
Book reviews: 'The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World’s Most Coveted Microchip' and 'Who Is Government? The Untold Story of Public Service'
Feature The tech titan behind Nvidia's success and the secret stories of government workers
By The Week US
-
Mario Vargas Llosa: The novelist who lectured Latin America
Feature The Peruvian novelist wove tales of political corruption and moral compromise
By The Week US
-
Why Russia removed the Taliban's terrorist designation
The Explainer Russia had designated the Taliban as a terrorist group over 20 years ago
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across Syria
THE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?
The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Who is the Hat Man? 'Shadow people' and sleep paralysis
In Depth 'Sleep demons' have plagued our dreams throughout the centuries, but the explanation could be medical
By The Week Staff
-
Why Assad fell so fast
The Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
By The Week UK