No-deal Brexit ‘could cost millennials £108,000 each’
Analysis of Brexit scenarios finds Norway-style trade agreement best for young people

Young British people stand to miss out on more than £100,000 each in lost earnings by 2050 if the UK goes ahead with a no-deal Brexit, a new report warns.
Analysis by campaign group Our Future Our Choice, which is backed by John Major, used models by Oxford University economist Tommy Peto that draw on government Brexit briefing papers to predict the economic impact of the various potential Brexit scenarios.
The research found that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in which the UK would default to World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rules, the average young person starting work now would earn between £44,000 and £108,000 less over the next 32 years.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
In the case of a free trade agreement (FTA) Brexit, a scenario based on Canada’s deal with the EU, those losses stand at between £30,000 and £72,000 by 2050.
The best form of Brexit for young people appears to be membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), an arrangement similar to Norway’s, but even that is forecast to cost them up to £32,000 compared with remaining in the EU.
The findings back up claims that “at a time of sky-high house prices and crippling student debt, the under-30s will be the biggest losers” of the UK quitting the European Union, says Metro.
The Independent adds that the study “lays bare the full cost of Brexit for the generation that opposed it”.
In the foreword to the report, former prime minister Major says: “Under every scenario that has been independently modelled - even by our own British Government - the UK will be poorer and weaker, and the poorest regions and the least well-off will suffer the most.”
“I would urge every parliamentarian to read and absorb the findings of this report,” he continues, adding that Brexit “was never the choice of the young, who voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU while their elders voted to leave”.
The report also calls for a second vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal - known as the “People’s Vote” - in order to give a voice to younger people that were not old enough to vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
“Since June 2016 there are nearly two million more young people eligible to vote. It is only right they have a say in their nation’s future,” says Major.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
What does the Le Pen verdict mean for the future of French politics?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Convicted of embezzlement and slapped with a five year ban on running for public office, where does arch-conservative Marine Le Pen go from here — and will the movement she leads follow?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Discount stores were thriving. How did they stumble?
The Explainer Blame Walmart — and inflation
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Kaja Kallas: the EU's new chief diplomat shaping the future of European defense
In the Spotlight Former Estonian Prime Minister's status as an uncompromising Russia hawk has gone from liability to strength
By David Faris Published
-
Has Starmer put Britain back on the world stage?
Talking Point UK takes leading role in Europe on Ukraine and Starmer praised as credible 'bridge' with the US under Trump
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump vows 25% tariffs on EU at Cabinet meeting
Speed Read The tariff threats serve to enhance a growing suspicion that the president views Europe as an adversary, not an ally
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Why are Europe's leaders raising red flags about Trump's Ukraine overtures to Putin?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Officials from across the continent warn that any peace plan without their input is doomed from the start
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Left on read: Labour's WhatsApp dilemma
Talking Point Andrew Gwynne has been sacked as health minister over messages posted in a Labour WhatsApp group
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Keir Starmer have to choose between the EU and the US?
Today's Big Question Starmer's 'reset' with the EU will focus on 'defence for trade' but an 'EU-hating' president in the White House could cause the PM trouble
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
New Year's Honours: why the controversy?
Today's Big Question London Mayor Sadiq Khan and England men's football manager Gareth Southgate have both received a knighthood despite debatable records
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will Starmer's Brexit reset work?
Today's Big Question PM will have to tread a fine line to keep Leavers on side as leaks suggest EU's 'tough red lines' in trade talks next year
By The Week UK Published
-
John Prescott: was he Labour's last link to the working class?
Today's Big Quesiton 'A total one-off': tributes have poured in for the former deputy PM and trade unionist
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published