2022 Emmys predictions: Who will win, and who could surprise?

(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images)

published 9 September 2022

The 2022 Emmy Awards are almost here. Who will be the big winners, and who's well positioned for a surprise? Here are our predictions:

Outstanding Drama Series

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The acclaimed HBO drama won big for its second season, and it only received stronger reviews and more buzz for season three. There's no sign the Television Academy's Succession fever is breaking based on its 25 nominations, the most of any show. Succession also won Outstanding Casting for a Drama Series at the Creative Arts Emmys, which has gone to the same show that won Outstanding Drama Series during the past three years. Besides, it's often been the case that one show will win Outstanding Drama Series multiple seasons in a row, as with Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Game of Thrones. So Succession could follow in that tradition.

But this isn't a done deal thanks to a little show called Squid Game. The Netflix series was a massive phenomenon last year, becoming the streamer's biggest series of all time. It has an impressive 14 nominations, and it picked up some surprise wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in February, as well as four Creative Arts Emmys. Much like 2020's upset Best Picture Oscar winner Parasite, the South Korean series explores issues of income inequality that resonated around the world, and were it to win, it would make history as the first foreign-language show to do so.

Outstanding Comedy Series is an even closer call. The reigning champion is Ted Lasso, but unlike Succession, the second season of Apple's soccer comedy seemed to receive just an ever-so-slightly more muted reception than the first. That's not to say the Academy doesn't still love it, and with 20 nominations, Ted Lasso remains a juggernaut. But there might be an opening for an upset if voters are inclined to go with a shiny new toy rather than a repeat, sort of like how they went with the critical darling Fleabag over the old favorite Veep at the 2019 Emmys. And that new toy could be Abbott Elementary.

Dopesick has the advantage of being about an important issue the Academy might want to shine a spotlight on. But on the other hand, The White Lotus earned a whopping 20 nominations to Dopesick's 14, including five for supporting actress alone. Plus, The White Lotus won the award for best casting at the Creative Arts Emmys, which since 2012 has lined up with the eventual winner all but once. This was one of five Creative Arts Emmys wins for the show.

Lead actor is another tough one, and several candidates have a realistic shot. Jeremy Strong won for Succession's second season and could do so again, though many pundits think this is Brian Cox's time to shine. Doesn't it feel like he should have an Emmy for Logan Roy at this point? On the other hand, there's always the risk that Succession fans aren't quite sure which of these actors to choose and end up splitting the vote, even if that wasn't an issue last time.

So could the winner instead be Bob Odenkirk, who literally nearly died making this season of Better Call Saul? He's been repeatedly nominated without a win, but he could get a final season bump for Saul. At the same time, Saul's final season was actually split in two, and the second half is eligible at next year's Emmys. So if voters keep that in mind, it's possible Odenkirk will have to wait until 2023 for a win, sort of like how Bryan Cranston lost for the first half of Breaking Bad's final season but won for the second half.

That could leave an opening for Lee Jung-jae. Crucially, the Squid Game star already beat Cox and Strong for a surprise victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and he did so again at the Critics' Choice Awards. Plus, a Squid Game star, Lee Yoo-mi, recently won Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series at the Creative Arts Emmys, beating several Succession actors. So there's clearly a desire in the Academy to honor the show's cast, and in a competitive category, voters may see this as the place to give Squid Game a green light.

Zendaya won this award for Euphoria's first season, so it's easy to imagine her doing so again. After all, Euphoria performed even better in the nominations this year than for season one, and Zendaya's co-star Colman Domingo won Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series at the Creative Arts Emmys. Laura Linney is also in the mix, and she could receive a final season bump for Ozark after failing to win in the past.

But Melanie Lynskey has emerged as the stand-out star of Showtime's ensemble Yellowjackets, and she won this prize at the Critics' Choice Awards. That certainly doesn't guarantee an Emmy win, but Lynskey did give a memorable speech there that Academy voters might have appreciated. She's also been quite visible throughout the lead-up to the Emmys in general, participating in multiple events and interviews and opening up about issues like the body shaming she's experienced in her career. It's hard not to root for her, especially as an actress who's been regularly working for nearly 30 years but has arguably never gotten her due until now. Lynskey could also essentially be the representative for Yellowjackets, a show the Academy liked enough to nominate for Outstanding Drama Series but that probably won't win anything else.

Billy Crudup previously won this award, but he seems unlikely to do so again considering how much the buzz for The Morning Show fell off a cliff in its second season (no pun intended). With that in mind, the category looks like a battle between two Succession stars, Kieran Culkin and Matthew Macfadyen, who probably aren't in as much danger of splitting the vote considering most of the nominees are also going up against one of their own co-stars.

Rhea Seehorn is finally nominated for Better Call Saul after being consistently snubbed in the past. So could the momentum that earned her a nomination also lead to a victory? It's certainly possible. But it's again worth noting Better Call Saul is also eligible next year, and the second half of its final season is where Seehorn really had her meatiest material. So perhaps she'll follow the trajectory of Tatiana Maslany, who was snubbed for Orphan Black early on, only to finally get nominated and lose … and then win next time.

We're also keeping a close eye on Jung Ho-yeon from Squid Game, who surprised with a win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Keep in mind, the SAG Awards don't have a supporting actor category for television, meaning she beat all the other actresses, including leads. Still, we're predicting Lee Jung-jae for best actor, and is the Squid Game momentum really strong enough for two acting awards? Succession's Sarah Snook is also a possibility, especially considering she hasn't won yet, though she did lose to Jung Ho-yeon at the SAG Awards.

Martin and Short are both comedy legends who the Academy may want to honor, and the fact that Nathan Lane won Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series at the Creative Arts Emmys is a good sign for Only Murders in the Building. But then again, Only Murders is all about the trio, so will voters have a difficult time choosing which of Martin and Short to rally behind? That could give one of the past winners an advantage, and it probably won't be Glover. Atlanta itself was snubbed for Outstanding Comedy Series, whereas it was nominated the year he won.

That being said, if it really turns out to be Abbott Elementary's night, it's not impossible to imagine Quinta Brunson winning. She doesn't only play the main character of Abbott Elementary but also created the show and writes it, so the Academy may be particularly impressed by that. On the other hand, Brunson is also nominated for Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series, so voters could honor both women by giving Smart an award for acting and Brunson an award for writing.

This is one of the few truly obvious, slam dunk winners of the night: Michael Keaton will certainly win for Dopesick. He's a beloved actor primarily known for movies giving an acclaimed performance on television, and he's already earned wins at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. At the latter ceremony, Keaton delivered a tear-jerking speech where he choked up while dedicating the award to his nephew, who died of a drug overdose. Voters will surely have that in mind when filling out their ballots.

Granted, Seyfried could be slightly vulnerable if only because The Dropout didn't perform quite as well in the nominations as some expected, picking up six but missing out for Naveen Andrews. Is it possible voters were more lukewarm on the show than we think? On the other hand, the Academy clearly liked Pam & Tommy given it received 10 nominations, including a surprise one for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. For that reason, keep an eye out for a surprise by Lily James, who also delivered a transformative performance as Pamela Anderson.

This one looks like Murray Bartlett's to lose. He crushed it as hotel manager Armond on the HBO limited series, and among the White Lotus stars nominated here, he was the only one to also earn a SAG nomination. Besides, more than a year after the finale aired, viewers are still struggling to get one particular image of Bartlett out of their minds. So hey, that means they haven't stopped thinking about him since, and that can only be a good thing!

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Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.