How potatoes became an 'unusual bellwether' in Russia's economy

A shortage of potatoes in Russia shows that Vladimir Putin's economy is "on the brink" as the humble vegetable becomes an unexpected guide to household finances, said The Telegraph.

Spud shortages have "become problematic" in Russia since prices have been "pushed up" by 167% over the past year, the biggest rise of any food, and the implications of this are "making Moscow vulnerable".

The 'second bread'

Potatoes are very popular in Russia, where they're sometimes known as the "second bread". When Mikhail Gorbachev visited the UK and had lunch with Margaret Thatcher in 1984, his wife Raisa impressed the prime minister and her team, saying that in Russia they had 300 ways of cooking the "humble spud". Mrs Gorbachev later clarified that there were, in fact, 500 such recipes.

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Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and subsequent sanctions on Russia, "eagle-eyed economists" have watched closely for any "signs of economic damage" as "surging" food prices and labour shortages have baked in inflation, "driving big cracks" in the economy.

There is "sparse reliable data" but this is where the potato comes in. The vegetable has become an "unusual bellwether" of household finances because "if people feel poorer they typically buy more potatoes".

The spud shortage is down to a combination of factors, including poor harvests last year, reduced planting area and increased production costs. Import restrictions on potatoes from other nations, including those in the European Union, have also chipped away at supply.

Socially significant 

"It turns out that we don't have enough potatoes," said Putin in May. He went on to say that when he approached Belarusian President, and ally, Alexander Lukashenko for help, he was told that Belarus's spud stocks had already "been sold to Russia", said Euractiv. (Due to its own shortage, the Belarus "regime temporarily banned the export of potatoes", said Politico.)

In response, Deputy State Duma Speaker Boris Chernyshov has called for "temporary state regulation of retail potato prices", said The Moscow Times, arguing that "sharp price fluctuations" in "such a socially significant product" can slap a "heavy burden" on the budgets of millions of families.

But are potatoes still the economic compass some think? Andrey Sizov, a Russian commodity expert, said that other food types, including butter, eggs and meat have also become more expensive after shortages, which may mean people are "trading up from potatoes", said The Telegraph.

Either way, while spuds might not "capture the economic spotlight" as much as energy or advanced technologies, the "phenomenon" does offer a "key insight" into a "changing world", said The Interpreter.