What is the job market's future after Trump's tariffs?
Economic analysts are split on what the tariffs could mean for employees


The job market was much healthier than expected in March, but some economic analysts are worried that the cascading effect of President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs could push hiring in the other direction. While the market added 228,000 jobs last month — far higher than the monthly average of 158,000 jobs over the past year — financial experts are expressing skepticism that this job boom is here to stay.
Others say that while the economy could crater due to Trump's tariffs on almost every country in the world, the job market itself may not bear the brunt. However, this does not necessarily mean that labor won't feel some economic malaise.
'The labor market is ill-positioned'
The job market has "proved surprisingly resilient," even as the economy has been "buffeted by rapid inflation, high interest rates and political instability," said Ben Casselman and Colby Smith at The New York Times. But Trump's tariffs "could be enough to shatter what had arguably been the economy's final source of support" in the job market.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Companies typically pass the extra cost of the tariffs onto the consumer, which will "raise prices for consumers and businesses, which will lead employers to pull back on hiring and, if the tariffs remain in place long enough, lay off workers," said Casselman and Smith. If the "economy isn't growing as fast, or it isn't growing at all, you don't need as many workers," said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo, to the Times.
This gives economists reason for caution about the market. The "saying, 'past performance is no guarantee of future results,' could apply to this jobs report," said Stephanie Hughes at Marketplace. This has come to the forefront in the auto industry. If the "price goes up a lot, because the production costs have gone up a lot, the demand for those cars is probably going to fall," UBS chief U.S. economist Jonathan Pingle said to Marketplace. This "probably means less workers to produce those cars."
The "labor market is ill-positioned to withstand new shocks from elevated uncertainty, increased tariff costs, cuts to government spending and employment, and weakening business and consumer sentiment," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, to Reuters. Beyond this, more "people faced long bouts of joblessness though the median duration of unemployment has eased, and multiple job holders continued to rise as did permanent job losers," Lucia Mutikani said at Reuters.
Job creation?
Not every sector is hit equally, as "hiring has remained stable in some industries, including health care and technology," Debra Boggs, the founder and CEO of research firm D&S Executive Career Management, said to CNBC. Instead of being out of jobs, some "senior-level federal leaders" are "now pivoting to the private sector." But it is "so incredibly uncertain and unprecedented."
The Trump administration has "argued that while tariffs may drive up prices, they will also help fuel job creation stateside, particularly across manufacturing," said Pavithra Mohan at Fast Company. And when "analyzing the impact of tariffs levied during Trump's first term, some economists found that manufacturing employment remained more or less unchanged; in other industries like agriculture, however, tariffs catalyzed job losses." However, Trump's first-term tariffs were not nearly as widespread as they are now.
When it comes to Trump's claim that his tariffs will boost manufacturing jobs, the "tariffs by themselves don't guarantee that outcome," said Tobias Burns at The Hill. They could be a "component of a broader industrial strategy if policies favorable to workers are advanced as well, such as those supporting higher wages and limiting the adoption of job-replacing automation." But there is "little evidence of a broader worker-protection agenda being advanced by the Trump administration so far."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Justin Klawans has worked as a staff writer at The Week since 2022. He began his career covering local news before joining Newsweek as a breaking news reporter, where he wrote about politics, national and global affairs, business, crime, sports, film, television and other news. Justin has also freelanced for outlets including Collider and United Press International.
-
Epstein: Why MAGA won’t move on
Feature Trump's supporters are turning on him after he denied the existence of Epstein's client list
-
Arms for Ukraine and an ultimatum for Russia
Feature Donald Trump reverses course, sending weapons to Ukraine and threatening Russia with tariffs
-
Japan's prime minister feels pressure after election losses
Speed Read Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office
-
Can the US economy survive Trump's copper tariffs?
Today's Big Question The price hike 'could upend' the costs of cars, houses and appliances
-
AMC hopes new ticket discounts will reinvigorate the movie theater industry
In the Spotlight The theater chain now has 50% discounts on both Tuesdays and Wednesdays
-
The FTC is pushing back against false 'Made in the USA' claims
The Explainer The agency has dubbed July 2025 'Made in the USA' month
-
Why the world's busiest shipping routes are under threat
The Explainer Political tensions, mega ships and global warming offer new challenges – and opportunities
-
Will Europe pivot to Asia on trade?
Today's Big Question It could be an attempt to sidestep the impact of Trump's tariffs
-
Jared and Ivanka's Albanian island
Under The Radar The deal to develop Sazan has been met with widespread opposition
-
Higher toy prices from Trump's tariffs have arrived
In the Spotlight Three out of four toy products in the US come from China
-
Doing the hustle: Are side gigs a sign of impending recession?
In the Spotlight More workers are 'padding their finances while they can'