Why coronavirus deaths are set to spike in the UK
Total number of fatalities is higher as new statistics count cases outside hospitals

New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest the coronavirus death toll for England and Wales is almost 25% higher than has been previously reported.
The latest ONS data show there were 210 deaths where Covid-19 was listed as a cause in the week up to 20 March – 40 more than the 170 deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales over the same period.
Of the ONS figures, 73% of all the reported deaths involved those aged 75 and over, with just one of the additional fatalities involving a person under the age of 45.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Guardian reports that the discrepancy between the official figures is because the ONS data include deaths that occurred outside hospitals, including in homes and care homes, which take at least five days to be officially registered.
An ONS spokesperson said the figures are “based on mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates. It includes suspected cases of Covid-19 where someone has not been tested positive for Covid-19.”
Prior to the release of the ONS figures, the only death rate figures available have been the daily count from UK hospitals of patients who have tested positive.
The ONS also found that Covid-19 accounted for 1% of the UK’s total deaths in the week ending 20 March.
Owing to the time lag between the two sets of figures, The Telegraph reports that “officials are braced to see a far higher spike in coming weeks” as more deaths begin to be recorded outside of hospitals.
Officials have emphasised that the expected spike is not an indication that the government’s lockdown measures are not working.
Two of the government’s leading advisers have said that hospital admissions linked to the virus are stabilising, as the impact of social distancing measures begin to be felt.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––For a round-up of the most important stories from around the world - and a concise, refreshing and balanced take on the week’s news agenda - try The Week magazine. Start your trial subscription today –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
The UK’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said yesterday that social distancing measures are “making a difference”, adding that the NHS is currently seeing around an additional 1,000 patients a day and described this daily rise as “stable”.
Vallance said that he expected the 1,000-a-day rise in hospital patients to continue for two to three weeks, after which “you would expect that to stabilise and to start to go down a bit”.
Meanwhile, Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, whose modelling influenced the Prime Minister’s decision to impose a nationwide lockdown, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “In the UK, we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators. Less so in deaths because deaths are lagged by a long time from when the measures come into force.
“We look at the numbers of new hospital admissions today… that does seem to be slowing down a little bit now.”
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
The state of Britain's Armed Forces
The Explainer Geopolitical unrest and the unreliability of the Trump administration have led to a frantic re-evaluation of the UK's military capabilities
By The Week UK
-
Anti-anxiety drug has a not-too-surprising effect on fish
Under the radar The fish act bolder and riskier
By Devika Rao, The Week US
-
Sudoku hard: April 21, 2025
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff
-
'There is a certain kind of strength in refusing to concede error'
instant opinion 'Opinion, comment and editorials of the day'
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US
-
'Most Americans have never heard of the Office of Net Assessment'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Has Starmer put Britain back on the world stage?
Talking Point UK takes leading role in Europe on Ukraine and Starmer praised as credible 'bridge' with the US under Trump
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK
-
'What Americans really need is access to safer products'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Left on read: Labour's WhatsApp dilemma
Talking Point Andrew Gwynne has been sacked as health minister over messages posted in a Labour WhatsApp group
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK
-
Unprepared for a pandemic
Opinion What happens if bird flu evolves to spread among humans?
By William Falk
-
New Year's Honours: why the controversy?
Today's Big Question London Mayor Sadiq Khan and England men's football manager Gareth Southgate have both received a knighthood despite debatable records
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK
-
Is there a Christmas curse on Downing Street?
Today's Big Question Keir Starmer could follow a long line of prime ministers forced to swap festive cheer for the dreaded Christmas crisis
By The Week UK