Could Taylor Swift swing the election?

Taylor Swift is at the height of her powers. Last year, the pop superstar broke a relentless slew of records, most notably earning the title of highest-grossing concert tour of all time with "Eras." Her die-hard fans have battled Ticketmaster, swarmed stadiums, and created seismic activity equivalent to an earthquake in their quest to see her play. Swift's tour also "generated $4.6 billion in consumer spending in the United States alone," said globalEDGE, effectively boosting the economy. 

Clearly, Swift has outsized influence — and that extends beyond the music industry. A recent LendingTree survey found that 20% of millennials and 24% of Gen Z said Swift made them care about football after she was seen supporting her boyfriend, Travis Kelce, at Kansas City Chiefs games. And a survey conducted before the "Eras" tour even began found that 53% of American adults identified as Swift fans, with 16% calling themselves "avid fans." The survey concluded that her appeal stretched across the political spectrum, though 55% of fans identified as Democrats, while 23% were Republicans and 23% independents.

Swift first waded into the political discourse in 2018, when she denounced Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), calling her "Trump in a wig." She also denounced Donald Trump in 2020. But while Swift's social media posts have helped drive voter registration, she has yet to weigh in on the 2024 presidential election, aside from advising her followers to "vote the people who most represent YOU into power."

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What did the commentators say?

"I've never seen a potential endorsement be so anticipated as this one," David Jackson, a Bowling Green State University professor who has studied the effect of celebrity endorsements, said to The Guardian. While it is unlikely that Swift's endorsement could influence a voter still torn between Trump or President Joe Biden, it is more feasible that she could "propel voter turnout," Jackson said. 

Dr. Brandon Valeriano, a political scientist at Seton Hall University's School of Diplomacy, believes Swift may be able to influence the youth voter turnout and undecided voters, like those "in red districts with heavy MAGA families who are consistently told what to do but don't have opinions," he said to Dazed. Swift can "activate these people, maybe give them a voice."

Biden's campaign team is allegedly strategizing to secure an endorsement from Swift, said The New York Times — while Trump has warned Swift that a Biden endorsement will be "disloyal to the man who made her so much money." (Trump refers to his signing of the Music Modernization Act in 2018.) Some rightwingers have unleashed conspiracy theories surrounding Swift as a pawn in the Democrats' election schemes; one of these being that the Super Bowl was fixed in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs to give Swift a platform to endorse Biden. (They won, but no such endorsement was made.) 

"I hope the Biden campaign figures out how to coax Taylor Swift out of her den," Jon Lovett said on Pod Save America. "But it's also on Taylor Swift. You built up a ton of goodwill. Time to spend it. Your country needs you."

What next?

The Swifties are organized, frequently rallying to boost the pop star's music on the charts — so it is indeed possible that Swift can direct their energy into support for a candidate. The right-wing attacks on Swift may also backfire for Republicans, as her fans show little mercy to those who criticize their idol. 

But even if Swift did endorse Biden, that would still be no guarantee. Many celebrities endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016, including Lady Gaga and Beyoncé — and she did not walk away the victor. "Swaying the election is unlikely, but also a very dramatic way of framing the issue," said Valeriano. "It's almost as if someone is setting up a situation in which they can blame an individual for a collective failure." 

Still, a February poll from market research firm Savanta found that 1 in 6 adults admitted they were "more likely to vote" if Swift or Kelce encouraged them to do so, said The Hill. "If this is a close election — anything becomes possible," said Valeriano.