What is ‘Arctic Sentry’ and will it deter Russia and China?

Nato is mulling a joint operation to defend the Arctic from future Russian and Chinese aggression – and to neutralise US ambition.

Britain, Germany and France have discussed a possible “Arctic Sentry” mission, echoing two similar Nato initiatives launched last year: Baltic Sentry (in response to underseas cable sabotage) and Eastern Sentry (following Russian drone incursions). This would be in addition to Denmark’s “Operation Arctic Endurance” in Nuuk where Britain, Canada and 10 other European nations have already sent a handful of troops to join that reconnaissance force in the Greenland capital.

The hope is to placate Donald Trump, who has repeatedly used claims of a growing threat of Russian and Chinese ships to justify his desire to seize Greenland. But whether a Nato mission could feasibly protect the mineral-rich Arctic – or whether the threat is as severe as the president claims – is a different question altogether.

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What did the commentators say?

Nato should “double down” on Arctic security and “do what we’ve done in other areas”, said Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. The Arctic is “the gateway for Russia’s Northern Fleet to be able to threaten” the UK, Europe, the US and Canada, she told the BBC while visiting British forces in northern Norway. “Transatlantic security depends on our Arctic security.”

She envisages the mission as covering “the high north”, including Greenland, Iceland, Finland and the increasingly busy shipping lanes. It would look like “coordinated exercises, operations and intelligence sharing”, she said, similar to the ongoing Baltic and Eastern Sentry missions.

Those are “considered big successes”, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). While the waters around Greenland “aren’t full of Russian and Chinese ships right now, that could change as Arctic ice melts and new sea lanes open up”.

Russian and Chinese vessels aren’t out there “studying the seals and the polar bears”, said Nato’s supreme allied commander in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich. But there are “many practical obstacles” to an Arctic Sentry operation, said RFE/RL. Nato has only about 40 ice-breaker vessels in total – fewer than Russia. Hundreds of such ships would be needed “to cover such a vast area”. Apart from Nordic countries and Canada, there are few troops with experience of operating “in harsh Arctic conditions”.

The Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry were also “formulated to tackle specific threats”, said The Telegraph. In the case of Greenland, the threats “are not as clear-cut”. Germany has “floated the idea of sending at least 5,000 troops” to Greenland, effectively a “tripwire” to stall a Russian or Chinese invasion.

But that wouldn’t “significantly contribute to regional security”, because any threat to Greenland is “unlikely to be a ground invasion”. Mass deployment would also “suck vast resources away from other priorities”, such as a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine or protecting Nato’s eastern flank from Russia. It “would simply be seen as a costly public relations project” designed to placate Trump. He “appears obsessed with the purported presence of Russian and Chinese ships” near the island. Security experts do not agree.

Indeed, there’s “hardly any military activity” by Russia and China in Greenland, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, told Politico.

Seven of the eight Arctic countries that are Nato members (Russia is the eighth) are cooperating more and more; the fact that other countries are “becoming more interested is a good thing”, Eide said. But the focus is “still more on Russia’s live threat to the European high north than a future threat to Greenland”.

What next?

One potential Arctic Sentry scenario could be “Europeans handling air and sea surveillance” of what is known as the GIUK gap – the area between Greenland and Ireland/the UK – while the US “increases its troop presence in Greenland”, said RFE/RL. The 1951 treaty between the US and Denmark that allows unlimited US presence on the island is still valid. Denmark would have to consent, but that is “likely to be given”.

The EU is also considering using a rearmament scheme to build a continental ice-breaker to deploy to the region alongside Nato warships, according to The Telegraph. But the most likely Arctic Sentry scenario would “focus on the intelligence aspect of security”, which is seen as “a vital way of securing the Arctic”.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte is “expected to put some security proposals” to Trump: a “toolbox” of ideas on how European nations could protect Greenland. Talks on Arctic Sentry are “at the earliest stages of planning”, but hopefully “at least one of the proposals will be enough” to deter Trump.