Israel-Hamas: which countries might be dragged into conflict?

Israel is mobilising tens of thousands of soldiers along the Gaza border ahead of an expected ground assault in response to the weekend's deadly attacks by Hamas.

A key question going forward is whether "this outbreak of violence draws in other countries or groups", said Vox. 

The United States, a key player in the region, "seems to anticipate escalation", said the website, from both Iran, and Hezbollah, a Shia militant group based in southern Lebanon. 

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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also said it shelled Syria after rockets hit open areas on Israeli territory. The IDF did not accuse any group of the rocket attack but security sources told The Wall Street Journal that they had come from Iran-backed militia in the country, and experts are warning that the situation could evolve very quickly into a broader cross-border conflict.

What did the papers say?

In a joint statement, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the US said that "this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage", signalling concerns over opportunistic actions being taken by other countries or militant groups.

But despite speculation over Iranian and Hezbollah involvement in the attacks "there are no concrete details linking them yet", said Vox. Iran has denied direct involvement in the attacks, but has in the past "played a major role in helping Hamas with its rocket and missile programs, and mortar programs", Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Vox.

Reports from The Wall Street Journal that Iranian security officials may have helped plan Saturday's attack were quickly knocked down. Both US and Israeli officials have so far said there is no indication of Iran's involvement in the planning of the attacks, while Mahmoud Mirdawi, a senior Hamas official, told The Wall Street Journal the attack was a "Hamas decision".

There are also fears that the conflict could spill over into neighbouring Lebanon, a country "already reeling from a historic economic meltdown", said Al Jazeera. Cross-border violence has forced "hundreds of Lebanese to remain inside their homes or flee towards the southern suburbs of Beirut".

There have been clashes along the northern border after armed militants crossed the border into Lebanon and were killed by Israeli troops. Although "paling in comparison to the fighting that has taken place around Gaza", said The New York Times, the clashes have "deepened unease over the possibility that the conflict – already the broadest invasion in 50 years – could spread to multiple fronts".

What next?

The Middle East is facing significant geopolitical implications, especially concerning Iran's alleged backing of the Hamas attacks. A broader confrontation between the West and Iran would have "grave" consequences for the wider geopolitical landscape including the diversion of "military and financial resources away from Ukraine", said Sky News.

Saudi Arabia had been on the verge of recognising Israel and the 2020 Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan, and Iran felt the "balance of diplomacy in the Middle East turning against them", according to military analyst Professor Michael Clarke, speaking to the broadcaster. 

Dr Ali Bilgic, a reader in international relations and security at Loughborough University, told the broadcaster that using Hamas to attack Israel serves Iran's strategic goal of regaining influence in the region. "It would give Iran the means of asserting itself as leaders in the Muslim world – and defenders of Palestinian rights against the Israeli regime," he said. 

Some of Washington's closest Middle East allies, particularly Qatar and Turkey, "have sharply broken with Washington on the war and largely backed Hamas", said Semafor's Jay Solomon. Qatar issued a statement on Saturday holding Israel "solely responsible" for the conflict and calling for an immediate cease-fire. The Biden administration has condemned that statement but the oil-rich Gulf state "may play a central role in negotiating the release of kidnapped Israeli and American citizens being held in Gaza, similar to ways it helped free Americans held by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021", said Solomon. 

More broadly, the Israel-Hamas war points to a world "in the midst of a transition to a new order that experts describe with the word multipolar", said David Leonhardt in The New York Times. With the US fading as a dominant global power, "political leaders in many places feel emboldened to assert their own interests, believing the benefits of aggressive action may outweigh the costs".