What will Trump-Putin Ukraine peace deal look like?

In his election campaign Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine in his first 24 hours as president. But three weeks into his second term, he still "blindsided almost everyone" by announcing that he'd agreed with Vladimir Putin to begin talks to end the conflict, said Politico.

Trump posted on social media that he had had a "lengthy and highly productive" phone call with the Russian president. He and Putin have "agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately".

But "stunned" European leaders, gathered in Brussels with Ukrainian counterparts for a Nato summit today, are "already trying to make clear that a decision can't be made above Ukrainian heads, not to mention their own".

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What did the commentators say?

"A single phone call will not magically end the war in Ukraine," said the BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg. But the telephone conversation with Trump is a "diplomatic victory" for Putin, who in many ways has "already got what he wants" – the opportunity to "negotiate directly" with the US.

Russian officials claim Moscow is "ready for talks", but refer to Putin's "so-called peace proposal" of 2024, under which Russia would "get to keep all the Ukrainian territory it has seized, plus some more land still under Ukrainian control". Ukraine would also not be permitted to join Nato. This "reads more like an ultimatum" than a peace deal.

Trump later spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but "was non-committal about whether Ukraine would be an equal participant" in negotiations, said MailOnline.

Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, also indicated that Washington is "intent on getting Europe to take on most of the financial and military burden of defending Ukraine, including a possible peacekeeping force that would not include US soldiers". Hegseth, who is also attending the Nato summit, suggested that troops be deployed as "a non-Nato mission". He also described the aim of Ukraine getting back all the territory seized by Russia since 2014 as "unrealistic".

These are all dividing lines with Europe. Nato's position, endorsed by Labour in the UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership, is still that Kyiv is on an "irreversible" path to joining the military alliance. The UK also signed a joint statement with EU allies last night, reiterating that "Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations".

British defence officials "reacted furiously to claims Ukraine will be forced to give up land to Russia", said The Independent. "That is what I am hearing of the US administration – 'the bastards are going to do this'", said BBC Newsnight's Nicholas Watt.

Another possible flashpoint is China, Russia's strongest backer, which is "pushing to play a role" in any peacekeeping efforts, sources in Beijing and Washington told The Wall Street Journal. That Chinese "offer" is being met with "deep scepticism" in both the US and Europe.

Others have accused Trump of undermining Ukraine's leverage before negotiations have started. "There's been some very, very hefty concessions made without much being asked for in return," said the former head of MI6, Alex Younger.

But this is "not about territory", he told BBC Radio 4's "Today" programme. "It's about sovereignty. Russia wants Ukraine to be a non-country, and if Donald Trump gives that away, we've lost."

What next?

The head of Nato, Mark Rutte, is urging allies to ramp up their military support for Kyiv, as well as their own defence spending. UK Defence Secretary John Healey said that the focus "for now" should be on ensuring Ukraine is in a strong position ahead of peace talks.

Trump said he and Putin would "meet also probably in Saudi Arabia the first time", although didn't specify when. US Vice President J.D. Vance is also expected to meet Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference tomorrow.

After speaking to Trump, Zelenskyy said: "Together with the US, we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace. As President Trump said, let's get it done."