Is Ukraine joining Nato? 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said there is “no point” in him attending the Nato summit next month if Ukraine is not “given a signal” on its application to join the alliance.

Ukraine applied for Nato membership in September last year, when Zelenskyy said the “decisive step” would protect “the entire community” of Ukrainians.

The secretary general of Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, said in response that “every democracy in Europe has the right to apply” and that “Nato’s door remains open”.

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Ukraine’s future in Nato “has become a heated topic” in the lead-up to the July summit of alliance leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania, said Politico. Western members such as the US and Germany have been “pushing back” on calls from Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states “for a clear plan on Kyiv’s membership bid”.

Volodymyr Havrylov, Ukraine’s defence minister, “doubled down” on Kyiv’s desire for a “roadmap” to joining the military alliance, telling Politico that his country would seek to become a member within a “very, very short” time after defeating Russia.

Why does Ukraine want to join Nato?

The alliance has supported Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in February last year. Nato states have plied Kyiv with “lethal aid”, as well as hitting Russia with the most punishing economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.

However, Nato members are entitled to protection under Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is regarded as an attack on them all. There is no question that Ukraine would benefit from Nato’s “defining credo”, said The New York Times.

But it is for that very reason that Nato is “highly unlikely to admit a country ensnared in war”, said the paper.

At the start of June, Zelenskyy “acknowledged this position and said his nation understood it was impossible to be admitted to Nato while the war continued”, said Reuters.

Why would it be admitted?

In 2008, Nato leaders promised Ukraine and Georgia that they would one day be able to join the defensive alliance. Although the process has stalled over the years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has effectively reopened the question. Finland joined Nato earlier this year and Sweden is in the process of seeking membership.

In a joint statement in October, the presidents of Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro and North Macedonia said they “firmly stand behind” the 2008 decision.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenskyy, then tweeted that 10 Nato countries supported Ukraine’s membership of the Western military alliance, “mostly countries that remember the poisonous claws of [the Russian] empire”.

Why wouldn’t it get membership?

“Early notes of caution from Washington and Berlin” before the summit in Vilnius suggest the odds of Nato offering Ukraine a clear path to membership are “slim”, said Foreign Policy, “notwithstanding intense pressure from countries on Nato’s eastern flank”.

The alliance is unlikely to accept Ukraine while it is “in a state of war”, said The Guardian, because fellow members would be “compelled to actively defend it against Russia”.

Approval for membership would require a consensus of all 31 Nato countries, and Ukraine does not enjoy universal support. There are “escalatory risks” in making Ukraine a member, John Williams, a professor at Durham University, told Euronews. Nato would then be “pitched more clearly into the war in a much more direct way”, putting other members that border Russia, such as Poland, in the “frontline”.

Ukraine’s membership of Nato could prove a propaganda victory for President Vladimir Putin, who has justified his invasion by claiming that Moscow is threatened by Nato.

“Putin is trying super, super hard, even desperately, to convince the Russians that there is an external existential threat from Nato,” Jamie Shea, a former Nato deputy assistant secretary general, told Euronews. Admitting Ukraine would “play to the hands of that narrative”.

How close are Ukraine and Nato?

Ukraine has had a partnership with Nato since 1992, said Alastair Kocho-Williams, professor of history at Clarkson University, on The Conversation, and the alliance established a Ukraine-Nato commission in 1997, providing a discussion forum for security concerns without a “formal membership agreement”.

Nato has previously supported non-member countries like Afghanistan during humanitarian emergencies, but it generally does not commit to deploying troops to a non-member state.

Whether it signs up Ukraine or not, Russia’s invasion has “definitely revitalised Nato”, wrote former Turkish foreign minister Yasar Yakis for Arab News, and “may continue to further strengthen the alliance”.