‘Shy Tories’, missed by polls, give David Cameron hope

David Cameron’s hopes of keeping his job are better than they look in the opinion polls. That’s because the pollsters are failing to pick up on “shy Tory” voters who don’t own up to their intention to vote Conservative on 7 May.

The effect is to flatter Ed Miliband and Labour with poll ratings between two and four points higher than they should be, according to the former Tory MP and respected election analyst Robert Hayward.

Hayward was an advisor to John Major in 1992 – the last time the Tories won outright in a general election. Polls had pointed to a victory for Labour leader Neil Kinnock. Pollsters came up with the idea of “shy Tories” to explain how they got it wrong.

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Hayward has analysed recent local elections, European elections and by-elections and tells the Evening Standard he reckons that in any given poll “the Labour vote is overstated and that the Green and Tory votes are understated”. He also thinks Labour supporters are less likely to vote.

• Countdown to 7 May: check The Week's daily election round-up

But the Tories should not put too much hope in a repeat of 1992, according to the New Statesman’s George Eaton.

Not only was John Major a fresh face – 16 months in the job - but pollsters have since transformed their techniques. The Conservatives, he warns, “cannot assume a late wave of support in their favour”.