‘Shy Tories’, missed by polls, give David Cameron hope
Former advisor to John Major believes we could see another surprise Tory victory - just like 1992
David Cameron’s hopes of keeping his job are better than they look in the opinion polls. That’s because the pollsters are failing to pick up on “shy Tory” voters who don’t own up to their intention to vote Conservative on 7 May.
The effect is to flatter Ed Miliband and Labour with poll ratings between two and four points higher than they should be, according to the former Tory MP and respected election analyst Robert Hayward.
Hayward was an advisor to John Major in 1992 – the last time the Tories won outright in a general election. Polls had pointed to a victory for Labour leader Neil Kinnock. Pollsters came up with the idea of “shy Tories” to explain how they got it wrong.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Hayward has analysed recent local elections, European elections and by-elections and tells the Evening Standard he reckons that in any given poll “the Labour vote is overstated and that the Green and Tory votes are understated”. He also thinks Labour supporters are less likely to vote.
But the Tories should not put too much hope in a repeat of 1992, according to the New Statesman’s George Eaton.
Not only was John Major a fresh face – 16 months in the job - but pollsters have since transformed their techniques. The Conservatives, he warns, “cannot assume a late wave of support in their favour”.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Ecuador's cloud forest has legal rights – and maybe a song credit
Under the Radar In a world first, 'rights of nature' project petitions copyright office to recognise Los Cedros forest as song co-creator
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Today's political cartoons - November 3, 2024
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - presidential pitching, wavering convictions, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Why Man United finally lost patience with ten Hag
Talking Point After another loss United sacked ten Hag in hopes of success in the Champion's League
By The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
David Cameron resigns as Sunak names shadow cabinet
Speed Read New foreign secretary joins 12 shadow ministers brought in to fill vacancies after electoral decimation
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published